segunda-feira, 29 de junho de 2009

Dívida Pública: a insustentabilidade do socialismo no caso americano.

Washington Post:
The Debt Tsunami

The CBO's latest warning on the long-term deficit is scarier than ever.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
THE CONGRESSIONAL Budget Office has a tough job: to provide America's lawmakers with a reality check on their tax and spending plans. Not surprisingly, the CBO's projections are not always received cheerfully. Both President Obama and leading congressional Democrats were less than thrilled when the CBO estimated that the costs of universal health coverage would be much higher than advertised. To be sure, projecting the cost of legislation involves making assumptions and constructing models that may or may not prove accurate 10 years down the road. Nonetheless, the CBO, with its tradition of scholarly independence, is the best available arbiter, and Congress must heed its numbers -- like them or not.
Now comes the CBO with yet more news of the sort that neither Capitol Hill nor the White House is likely to welcome: its freshly released report on the federal government's long-term financial situation. To put it bluntly, the fiscal policy of the United States is unsustainable. Debt is growing faster than gross domestic product. Under the CBO's most realistic scenario, the publicly held debt of the U.S. government will reach 82 percent of GDP by 2019 -- roughly double what it was in 2008. By 2026, spiraling interest payments would push the debt above its all-time peak (set just after World War II) of 113 percent of GDP. It would reach 200 percent of GDP in 2038.
This huge mass of debt, which would stifle economic growth and reduce the American standard of living, can be avoided only through spending cuts, tax increases or some combination of the two. And the longer government waits to get its financial house in order, the more it will cost to do so, the CBO says.
The CBO's new long-term forecast is considerably more pessimistic than the one it issued 18 months ago, mostly because of the recession, which has driven the budget deficit above 12 percent of GDP. But the report makes clear that the recent economic downturn did not cause the government's predicament and that the situation will not necessarily improve once the economy does. The principal cause of long-term fiscal distress is the aging of the U.S. population, coupled with rising health-care costs -- which, together, will drive spending on Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security to new heights. Unchecked, federal spending on Medicare and Medicaid combined will grow from almost 5 percent of GDP today to almost 10 percent by 2035 -- and to more than 17 percent of GDP by 2080.
Like his predecessors, Mr. Obama is aware of this issue. Like them, he has promised a plan to deal with it. And like them, he has not come up with anything credible yet. It's time for that to change.

Interferência externa de Chávez: caso de Honduras

Diziam que a América Central era o quintal dos EUA. Seria melhor ser o quarto de empregada da Venezuela?
1. O presidente Zelaya foi eleito pelo Partido Liberal (direita) e algum tempo depois se tornou chavista. Com eleições convocadas para novembro deste ano, forçou o direito à reeleição. O Congresso rechaçou a proposta. Zelaya ignorou a decisão do Congresso e partiu para realizar o plebiscito de qualquer forma.
2. O promotor e defensor dos direitos humanos considerou o plebiscito ilegal. O STF, o TSE e o MP o declararam inconstitucional. O parlamento votou lei impedindo. Os comandantes das Forças Armadas foram exonerados. O Supremo determinou que o general chefe do estado maior fosse restituído a seu posto (medida inusitada).
3. A intervenção de Chávez foi alarmante. Mandou rodar as cédulas do plebiscito e fazer as urnas, e as enviou a Tegucigalpa. Insultou as autoridades constituídas hondurenhas - judiciais, militares e parlamentares. Chamou o chefe do estado maior, general Vásquez, de "gorila e traidor". E colocou suas Forças Armadas de prontidão. O presidente Zelaya foi ao aeroporto, com seus correligionários, receber o material desde Caracas. As urnas foram distribuídas por uma frota de táxis contratados.
4. O STF determinou a prisão de Zelaya. Este apresentou sua renúncia à presidência ( http://writer.zoho.com/public/blogdocesarmaia/Doc22 e http://www.elheraldo.hn/Secciones-Secundarias/Videos?v=8xhzctcz2e0m). Pela manhã, o Congresso aceitou a renúncia e nomeou presidente o presidente do Congresso, Roberto Micheletti ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A646Y54Uiww&feature=related). Zelaya foi detido pelo exército e transferido para Costa Rica. Negou a renúncia. Então Chávez o transferiu para Nicarágua e convocou reunião dos países do ALBA.

quarta-feira, 24 de junho de 2009

EUA, a idéia

Muitos me perguntam como posso admirar tanto os EUA. O que não entendem é que não admiro os EUA, um país no tempo e no espaço; mas, os EUA, a idéia. É o que vai esplendidamente resumido abaixo:


James Hansen: criador do catastrofismo ambientalista

The Man Who Cried Doom
NASA's James Hansen is the least-muzzled climate alarmist in America.
by Michael Goldfarb
06/15/2009, Volume 014, Issue 37


It's been more than 20 years since James Hansen first warned America of impending doom. On a hot summer day in June 1988, Hansen, the head of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, came to Washington to announce before a Senate committee that "the greenhouse effect has been detected and it is changing our climate now."

The greenhouse effect would have looked obvious enough to anyone watching on television. The senators conducting the hearing, including Al Gore, had turned the committee room into an oven. That day it was a balmy 98 degrees, and as former Colorado senator Timothy Wirth later revealed, the committee members "went in the night before and opened all the windows. And so when the hearing occurred, there was not only bliss, which is television cameras and [high ratings], but it was really hot."

Hansen has been a star ever since. On the 20th anniversary of his testimony to Congress and still serving in the same role at NASA, Hansen was invited back for an encore performance where he warned that time was running out. He also conducted a media tour that included calling for the CEOs of fossil fuel companies, including ExxonMobil and Peabody Energy, to be put on trial for "high crimes against humanity and nature."

If you hear the echo of Nuremberg in those trials, it's because Hansen doesn't shy away from Holocaust metaphors to make his point. In 2007, Hansen testified before the Iowa Utilities Board not in his capacity as a government employee but "as a private citizen, a resident of Kintnersville, Pennsylvania, on behalf of the planet, of life on Earth, including all species." Hansen told the board that "if we cannot stop the building of more coal-fired power plants, those coal trains will be death trains--no less gruesome than if they were boxcars headed to crematoria, loaded with uncountable irreplaceable species."

More recently, but presumably still in his capacity as a private citizen and defender of the Earth, Hansen wrote an op-ed for the Guardian in which he described coal-fired power plants as "factories of death." This on the heels of testifying in a British court on behalf of six Greenpeace activists on trial for causing $60,000 in criminal damage to a coal-fired power station in England. The Greenpeace activists had offered climate change as a "lawful excuse" for their actions and with Hansen's helpful testimony were acquitted of all charges. Less than six months later, Hansen--a federal employee--would call for "the largest display of civil disobedience against global warming in U.S. history" as part of a protest at the Capitol power plant in Washington.

Hansen, by his own count, has conducted more than 1,400 interviews in recent years. Yet Hansen would also insist, in a speech just days before the 2004 presidential election, that the Bush administration had "muzzled" him because of his global warming activism. When asked about this contradiction in 2007, Hansen told Rep. Darrell Issa that "for the sake of the taxpayers, they should be availed of my expertise. I shouldn't be required to parrot some company line."

But Hansen has never parroted the company line. As the head of NASA's Weather and Climate Research Program from 1982 to 1994, John Theon was James Hansen's supervisor. Theon says that Hansen's testimony in 1988 was "a huge embarrassment" to NASA, and he remains skeptical of Hansen's predictions. "I don't have much faith in the models," Theon says, pointing to the "huge uncertainty in the role clouds play." Theon describes Hansen as a "nice, likeable fellow," but worries "he's been overcome by his belief--almost religious--that he's going to save the world."

William Gray, a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University, also describes Hansen's belief in a man-made global-warming catastrophe as "almost religious" and says he "never understood how [Hansen] got such a strong voice" in the debate. Gray's efforts to predict hurricanes also lead him to question Hansen's computer models. "He doesn't have the clouds in right, and he doesn't have the deep ocean circulation," Gray says. "It's a giant scam in my view."

Yet Hansen has been well rewarded by the scientific community for his efforts, winning the American Meteorological Society's highest award for atmospheric science earlier this year. Gray says he was "appalled at that," particularly in light of the fact that Hansen wasn't even trained as a -meteorologist. Gray distributed a paper describing the choice as a "hijacking" of the AMS: "By presenting Hansen with its highest award, the AMS implies it agrees with his faulty global temperature projections and irresponsible alarmist rhetoric," Gray wrote.

Indeed, Roy Spencer, who served as the senior scientist for climate studies at NASA's Marshall Center, puts Hansen "at the extreme end of global warming alarmism." Spencer doesn't know of anyone "who thinks it's a bigger problem than [Hansen] does." Spencer, a meteorologist by training and a skeptic of man-made global warming, was genuinely muzzled during the Clinton administration. "I would get the message down through the NASA chain [of command] of what I could and couldn't say in testimony."

Spencer left NASA with little fuss for a job at the University of Alabama in 2001, but he still seems in awe of Hansen's ability to do as he pleases. "For many years Hansen got away with going around NASA rules, and they looked the other way because it helped sell Mission to Planet Earth," the NASA research program studying human effects on climate. Spencer figures that "at some point, someone in the Bush administration said 'why don't you start enforcing your rules?' "

Gray says that Hansen's "testimony is not working out" anyway. There's been a "slight cooling since 2001. .  .  . They're scrambling," he says. And indeed Hansen got caught with his hand in the cookie jar in 2007, when Stephen McIntyre, the man who debunked the infamous "hockey stick" graph showing stable Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures for most of the last millennia before a sharp upturn, found a flaw in Hansen's numbers. McIntyre analyzed NASA's temperature records for the last century and found that, contrary to Hansen's charts, 1998 was not the hottest year on record. That honor belongs to 1934, and five of the ten hottest years on record are now found prior to World War II.

Theon says the same kind of models that now predict runaway warming were predicting runaway cooling prior to 1975, when the popular fear was not melting ice caps but a new ice age, and "not one model predicted the cooling we've had since 1998." Spencer insists "it's all make believe--if you took one look at the assumptions that go into this, you'd laugh." But none of that seems to matter too much.

"Gore was in his corner and now the president is in his corner," Theon says. "They don't understand what the hell is going on."

Michael Goldfarb is a Phillips Foundation fellow and the online editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD.

segunda-feira, 22 de junho de 2009

A Igreja e a Defesa do Casamento

A Igreja perdeu muito por sua posição contrária ao divórcio e a favor do Evangelho. Para ser mais exato, todos os bens que possuia na Inglaterra - e ainda há quem tente encontrar motivação materialista para suas ações... Além disso, temos santos que morreram por serem contrários ao divórcio:
São Thomas More
Inglês, nascido em 1477, foi decapitado em Londres, por ordem de Henrique VIII pela sua fidelidade à Sé apostólica romana. Estudou na Universidade de Oxford. Era de carácter extremamente simpático. De honrada burguesia, filho de um juiz. Foi pajem do arcebispo de Cantuária. Pai de família, teve um filho e três filhas. Era jurista e amigo de Erasmo, que lhe dedicou a sua obra-prima: "O Elogio da loucura". Foi nomeado chanceler do Reino.

Deixou várias obras escritas, versando sobre negócios civis e liberdade religiosa. A sua obra mais conhecida intitula-se "A Utopia" (vocábulo grego que significa: em parte nenhuma).

Opôs-se duramente ao divórcio de Henrique VIII, que desejava anular seu primeiro casamento a fim de casar-se com Ana Bolena. Recusou-se a comparecer aos cerimoniais de coroação da nova rainha. Por ordem do rei, foi preso e lançado na Torre de Londres. Na prisão escreveu Diálogo do Conforto nas Tribulações.

Mesmo condenado à forca, não perdeu o seu peculiar bom humor cristão, sua naturalidade e simplicidade. No dia da execução, pediu ajuda para subir ao cadafalso. E disse ao povo: "Morro leal a Deus e ao Rei, mas a Deus antes de tudo". E abraçando o carrasco, disse: "Coragem, amigo, não tenhas medo! Mas como tenho o pescoço muito curto, atenção! Está nisso a tua honra!" E pediu para que não lhe estragasse a barba, porque ela, ao menos, não cometera nenhuma traição. Morreu no dia 6 de Julho de 1535. Foi beatificado em 1886 por Leão XIII e canonizado em 1935 por Pio XI.
--------------------------------
São João Fisher
Nasceu no ano de 1469, estudou em Cambridge (Inglaterra) e foi ordenado sacerdote. Mais tarde, foi nomeado bispo de Rochester, cargo que exerceu com uma vida de grande austeridade e intenso zelo apostólico, visitando com frequência os seus fiéis. Escreveu também diversas obras contra os erros do seu tempo.

Foi decapitado em 1535 por ordem do rei Henrique VIII, por se ter recusado a ceder na questão da pretendida anulação do seu matrimónio. Enquanto estava no cárcere, foi designado cardeal pelo papa Paulo III.

sábado, 20 de junho de 2009

Praça da Paz Celestial e Irã: semelhanças

Vejamos:

Ambos ocorreram exatamente após 30 anos de existência sob um regime totalitário (comunista e islâmico) e durante os quais as sociedades passaram de agrárias para urbanas;

Ambos tiveram, por estopim, a derrota de líderes reformistas (morte de Hu Yaobang e fraude na eleição de Mousavi);

Ambos ocorreram ao final de uma década conturbada na qual regimes semelhantes foram desafiados, enfraquecidos ou eliminados (legalização do Solidariedade em abril e vitória nas eleições polonesas em junho de 89; reformas liberalizantes na Hungria em 88; glasnost e perestroika em 86 na URSS; queda do muro de Berlin, deposição de Ceausesco na Romenia e Revolução de Veludo na Tchecoslováquia em 1989/ deposição de Saddam Hussein em 2003 e eleições livres no Iraque em 2005; deposição dos talibãs no Afeganistão em 2001 e eleições presidenciais em 2004; primeiras eleições nos Emirados Árabes Unidos em 2006; expulsão da Síria do Líbano em 2005 e vitória do partido anti-síria nas eleições de 2009);

Houve atuação externa direta (dos EUA) nos eventos que levaram ao enfraquecimento ou queda desses regimes totalitários de natureza semelhante.

Ambos ocorreram em junho, mas isso é só coincidência mesmo.

Com tantas semelhanças, é difícil, para mim, entender por que absolutamente nenhum comentarista sério (falo daqueles fora do Brasil, evidentemente) tocou nesse assunto. A única menção a Tiananmen é o medo de um massacre semelhante. Vai ver estou viajando...

Acredito que a causa última da revolta seja a consciência de que a liberdade é possível. Essa consciência, nos dois casos, foi adquirida pela informação sobre a queda de regimes semelhantes e a possibilidade de ajuda externa.

Acho que a foto da manifestação iraniana na qual um jovem segurava um cartaz onde se lia: "lembrem-se do que aconteceu com Saddam" resume meu ponto.

Kyoto falhou, não os EUA

Kyoto Schmyoto II
Randall Hoven

The US is doing better at controlling its carbon emissions than most other countries, without Kyoto mandates. Thus reports Drew Thornley at The American (the Journal of the American Enterprise Institute).

"According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), carbon-dioxide emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels increased 0.7 percent in the United States from 2000 to 2006, far below the worldwide increase of 21.6 percent. During the same period, emissions grew 4.9 percent in Europe, 37.6 percent in the Middle East, and 52.3 percent in Asia. Major developing nations saw big increases. India, Malaysia, and China's emissions increased 27.7 percent, 45.8 percent, and 103 percent, respectively."


So the world, or at least the American Enterprise Institute, is now catching up to the American Thinker, which in 2007 reported on this same phenomenon.

"If we look at that data and compare 2004 (latest year for which data is available) to 1997 (last year before the Kyoto treaty was signed), we find the following.

* Emissions worldwide increased 18.0%.
* Emissions from countries that signed the treaty increased 21.1%.
* Emissions from non-signers increased 10.0%.
* Emissions from the U.S. increased 6.6%."


As Drew Thornley quotes Gwyn Prins of the London School of Economics and Steve Rayner of Oxford University: "[the Kyoto Protocol] as an instrument for achieving emissions reductions, has failed . . . It has produced no demonstrable reductions in emissions or even in anticipated emissions growth."

For those concerned about absolute levels of emissions rather than percentage increases, Thornley also reports

"In 2006, China passed the United States as the world's biggest carbon emitter, and its lead is growing daily. The EIA projects that China's energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide will exceed American emissions by almost 15 percent in 2010 and by 75 percent in 2030. In 1990, China and India together accounted for 13 percent of the world's emissions; in 2005, their contribution was 23 percent; and in 2030, they are expected to account for 34 percent of the world's emissions."


Kyoto has failed. Who could have guessed?

Polônia Comunista x Irã Islâmico; Reagan x Obama

Obama Is No Reagan: The Polish Lesson Ignored in Iran

By Jeffrey Lord on 6.18.09 @ 6:08AM

Barack Obama is no Ronald Reagan.

One need look no further than President Obama's cautiously timid response to the demands of freedom from Iranians. Contrast this with Reagan's response to similar demands from Poles in the 1980s and the miserable inadequacy of the Obama foreign policy is thrust into a stark and shameful relief.

When Reagan took office in January of 1981, Poland had been a Soviet satellite for almost four decades. The American foreign policy establishment had long since settled into an acceptance of moral equivalency between the United States and the Communists. The policy was acted out in a thousand different ways ranging from so-called "détente" (a relaxing of tensions) to a vast, arcane arms control process which over time had substituted the process itself instead of the unconditional victory of freedom as America's chief foreign policy goal.

Reagan had campaigned on a completely different idea, a very old principle when dealing with an adversary. He phrased it this way to his first national security advisor, Richard Allen: "We win, they lose." It was this goal that Reagan sought, and thus caused him to speak bluntly about America's adversary in the Cold War. An "Evil Empire" is how he early-on famously described the Soviet Union, completely horrifying the Obama-like striped-pants set in the State Department and Establishment foreign policy circles. When the Soviet Ambassador made an early call on the new Reaganized State Department he was prevented from the cozy physical access to the building previous administrations had granted him. In times past he was driven into the basement garage and then rode a private elevator to the seventh floor, the location of the Secretary of State's office. He was the only diplomat in all of Washington accorded this special privilege. The rest -- some 150 ambassadors -- had to be driven to the main entrance, walk through the State Department public lobby and take the public elevator. This practice ceased with the Soviet Ambassador's very first visit to the newly Reaganized State Department.

Change was at hand, and the Ambassador -- his limo driver forced to quite publicly back out of the garage and go around to the main entrance in full view of the press -- was not happy.

One of the very first items that arose on Reagan's watch was the rising demand for freedom from the Polish people. On January 21, his first full day in the Oval Office, word reached the White House that a young shipyard worker and union leader named Lech Walesa had informed the Communist government of Poland he had called a series of strikes in four Polish cities, beginning the next day. Within 24 hours hundreds of thousands of Poles in ten cities -- not four -- were publicly defying the Polish Communist dictator, General Wojciech Jaruzelski.

A fight for freedom was on -- and Ronald Reagan had zero intention of standing on the sidelines.

"In my speeches and press conferences, I deliberately set out to say some frank things about the Russians, to let them know there were some new fellows in Washington who had a realistic view of what they were up to and weren't going to let them keep it up." At his very first press conference he answered a question about whether the Soviets could be trusted. "I said the answer to that question could be found in the writings of Soviet leaders: It had always been their philosophy that it was moral to lie or cheat…"

Liberals all over Washington paled. This, they insisted, was no way to conduct diplomacy. One just does not say these things in public. But Reagan had only just begun.

As Walesa and his fellow Poles demanded the most basic of human liberties, Moscow responded by sending troops on maneuvers along the Polish border, then installing a military government with instructions to stop Walesa in his tracks.

Distinctly unlike Obama's reaction to the demonstrators filling the streets of Iran, Reagan looked at similar crowds in Poland and said the sight was "thrilling." Said Reagan: "I wanted to be sure we did nothing to impede this process and everything we could to spur it along."

And so he did. In a stiff note to Soviet boss Leonid Brezhnev, Reagan said that if the Russians kept up their thuggish response to Poland they "could forget any new nuclear arms agreement." Gone too would be better trade relations, and in their place would be the "harshest possible economic sanctions" if they even thought of invading Poland as they had done with Czechoslovakia in 1968 or Hungary in 1956.

The Russians responded. In December, Reagan later recalled, without warning they shut down the Polish borders, shut off communications with the outside world, arrested Walesa and his fellow leaders of Solidarity (the union Walesa led), and imposed martial law.

Almost immediately Reagan was told the stunning news that the Polish Ambassador to the United States and his wife wished to defect. Hesitating not a second, Reagan made certain that American authorities got to the Ambassador before the KGB and "spirited him away to a safe place." Reagan wrote this in his diary at the time:

I took a stand that this may be the last chance in our lifetime to see a change in the Soviet Empire's colonial policy re Eastern Europe. We should take a stand and tell them unless and until martial law is lifted in Poland, the prisoners were released and negotiations resumed between Walesa and the Polish government, we would quarantine the Soviets and Poland with no trade or communications across their borders. Also tell our NATO allies and others to join us in such sanctions or risk an estrangement from us. A TV speech is in the works.

The now-defected Polish Ambassador was invited to the Oval Office. It was the direct opposite of the response from the Ford White House when the great Russian dissident writer Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn arrived in the U.S. and an Oval Office meeting with President Ford was rejected for fear of antagonizing the Soviets. Reagan said the Ambassador and his wife "had looks of desperation…mixed with relief. Their faces brightened when I told them I welcomed them to America as genuine Polish patriots….It was an emotional moment…and left me with more disgust than ever for the evil men in the Kremlin who believed they had the right to hold an entire nation in captivity. Subsequently, I learned Ambassador Spasowski had been condemned to death by the generals who ruled Poland."

After the meeting was over, Reagan went back to writing what was supposed to be a Christmas message, deciding to use the occasion to send another message altogether to the Soviets, condemning them outright for their conduct in Poland: "We can't let this revolution against Communism fail without offering a hand," he wrote that day in his diary. "We may never have an opportunity like this in our lifetime."

Christmas or not, Reagan proceeded to write Brezhnev about the "recent events in Poland." Warned the President: "Attempts to suppress the Polish people-either by the Polish army or police acting under Soviet pressure, or through even more direct use of the Soviet military force -- certainly will not bring about long term stability in Poland and could unleash a process neither you nor we could fully control." Reagan said the Soviets were encouraging "political terror, mass arrests and bloodshed" and they must either halt this behavior or "we will travel a different path."

On Christmas morning, Reagan had a heated, angry reply from Brezhnev. Furious, he accused the President of "defaming our social and state system, our internal order." It was a charge, Reagan said, "to which I pleaded guilty." The rest of the response from the Soviet leader was a rant. An angry Brezhnev railed about "attempts to dictate your will to other states.." The Soviet Union "repudiates the claims of anyone to interfere in the events occurring in Poland…It is your Administration that has already done enough to disrupt or at the very least undermine everything positive which was achieved at the cost of great effort by previous American administrations in the relations between our countries." Brezhnev also fumed over "the general tone" of Reagan's letter, snapping that it "is not the way in which leaders of such powers as the Soviet Union and the United States should talk with each other…"

Reagan's response? "What a good Christmas present…I'd made my point to Brezhnev."

By New Year's Day a steely Reagan was announcing sanctions against both Poland and the Soviet Union. Negotiations on a long-term grain-sale agreement were halted. Flights into the United States by the Soviet airline Aeroflot were banned by the Reagan Administration. An embargo was imposed on American-made products critical to the Soviet Union, beginning with pipe-laying equipment needed desperately for the construction of the trans-Siberian gas pipeline.

The Europeans bucked at this latter penalty. "The reaction of some of our allies suggested that money spoke louder to them than principle," Reagan said. He ignored them, saying tartly: "There was a lot of talk about not having a set to with our allies. I firmly said to hell with it."

History records that Reagan's decision to take a strong stand for Polish freedom -- and bringing down the Communist system itself -- was the right one. There was nothing timid about his behavior. Indeed, his firm signals were consistent throughout whether he was writing to Leonid Brezhnev, shutting off the once-privileged access of the Soviet Ambassador to the State Department, helping the Polish Ambassador to defect and then making a point of greeting him in the Oval Office or making clear his support for Lech Walesa and the Polish workers of Solidarity. He used every tool at his disposal to push the Communist government of Poland to collapse. And he succeeded.

Lech Walesa went on to win the Nobel Peace Prize and later become the freely elected President of a democratic Poland. In 2007, Walesa's successor as President of Poland traveled to the Reagan Library to present Nancy Reagan, who accepted on behalf of her late husband, The Order of the White Eagle, the oldest and highest honor within the gift of the Polish people. Today one can visit Ronald Reagan Square in Krakow, a Reagan statue is planned for Warsaw and Reagan streets and parks dot the country. He is considered, in the words of the Polish president, the "architect of democracy."

This is a lesson that one realizes the Obama White House simply doesn't have the courage to embrace. As over a million Iranians fill the streets of Tehran, the message from this President of the United States is that he is afraid to be seen as "meddling" -- precisely the charge Reagan faced down from Brezhnev. Instead Obama backs away from standing up for freedom, saying (as if Iran were a free country): "It is up to Iranians to make decisions about who Iran's leaders will be. We respect Iranian sovereignty and want to avoid the United States being the issue inside of Iran." He does say he is "deeply troubled."

As those Iranians who seek freedom are literally shot dead in the streets, Obama observes cautiously that "the democratic process, free speech, the ability of people to peacefully dissent -- all those are universal values and need to be respected." Instead of dealing with the mullahs of Iran in the fashion Reagan dealt with Brezhnev and the Polish Communist puppets, Obama refers deferentially to Ayatollah ali Khamenei, as the "Supreme Leader." Not from this president will you hear as one did from Reagan that this latest thuggish leader is capable of lying and cheating -- an amazing thought when the subject at issue is a fraudulent election and the serious potential of nuclear weapons in the Middle East.

What must the Lech Walesa's of Iran think as they bravely twitter back and forth their demands for human liberty? Twittering and blogging inside Iran suddenly demands the same kind of courage Walesa displayed as a young Polish shipyard worker. What can those Iranian protestors -- the lineal descendants of those Polish Solidarity workers -- possibly think as they demand the same human liberties Ronald Reagan went out of his way to make a reality in Poland? Only to find that this time there is no Ronald Reagan in the Oval Office but rather a timid man who responds to desperate pleas for human freedom in the cautious and precise tones of a law professor?

Both the American and Iranian people are learning Barack Obama is no Ronald Reagan.

Dangerously, the rest of the world is learning it too. This does not bode well.

Letter to the Editor

topics:
Iran, Ronald Reagan, Poland
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Jeffrey Lord worked on five Supreme Court nominations as a Reagan White House political director, including that of Robert Bork. He is the author of a book on the Senate's judicial confirmation process and writes from Pennsylvania at jlpa@aol.com.

sexta-feira, 19 de junho de 2009

Histórico de Gabriela

4 meses: primeira viagem: Teresópolis;

5 meses: primeira palavra: mamá (chorando no berço à noite para ser levada à mãe que estava dormindo no quarto);

5 meses: primeiro dente;

6 meses: foi para a praia em SSA;

1 ano: (19/06/09) andou pela primeira vez. Levantou sozinha e deu três passos;

1 ano: deixou de lado a chupeta;

1 ano e 4 meses: aprendeu a assoviar; sua comida preferida é biscoito de povilho; seu livro preferido é um com fotos de animais; adora ver o álbum com suas fotos; chama a mãe de caa-la e já fala au-au para os cachorros; quando vê outras crianças, corre para abraçá-las e beijá-las; gosta de dançar pulando no colo do pai quando passa alguns desenhos; só dorme com a mãe; adora tomar banho na banheirinha com os patinhos e gosta de escovar seus muitos dentes;

1 ano e 5 meses: no parquinho, fica no balanço sozinha, sobe as escadas do brinquedo sozinha e desce sozinha no escorregador. Se comunica balançando a cabeça para sim e não, fala mama, papa, auaua (cachorro), gagau (mamadeira), pepepepe (para comprar pão qdo passo perto da padaria), dá tapinhas no local onde quer sentar ou quer que alguém sente, dança quando canto a música do Will e Dewitt e Vila Sésamo, passa sabão nela e em quem estiver dando banho, pega as sandálias e me dá quando quer passear.

1 ano e 6 meses: começou a falar frase inteiras em seu próprio idioma.

Imoralidade de Obama em Política Externa: o caso das manifestações iranianas

Hope and Change -- but Not for Iran

By Charles Krauthammer
Friday, June 19, 2009

Millions of Iranians take to the streets to defy a theocratic dictatorship that, among its other finer qualities, is a self-declared enemy of America and the tolerance and liberties it represents. The demonstrators are fighting on their own, but they await just a word that America is on their side.

And what do they hear from the president of the United States? Silence. Then, worse. Three days in, the president makes clear his policy: continued "dialogue" with their clerical masters.

Dialogue with a regime that is breaking heads, shooting demonstrators, expelling journalists, arresting activists. Engagement with -- which inevitably confers legitimacy upon -- leaders elected in a process that begins as a sham (only four handpicked candidates permitted out of 476) and ends in overt rigging.

Then, after treating this popular revolution as an inconvenience to the real business of Obama-Khamenei negotiations, the president speaks favorably of "some initial reaction from the Supreme Leader that indicates he understands the Iranian people have deep concerns about the election."

Where to begin? "Supreme Leader"? Note the abject solicitousness with which the American president confers this honorific on a clerical dictator who, even as his minions attack demonstrators, offers to examine some returns in some electoral districts -- a farcical fix that will do nothing to alter the fraudulence of the election.

Moreover, this incipient revolution is no longer about the election. Obama totally misses the point. The election allowed the political space and provided the spark for the eruption of anti-regime fervor that has been simmering for years and awaiting its moment. But people aren't dying in the street because they want a recount of hanging chads in suburban Isfahan. They want to bring down the tyrannical, misogynist, corrupt theocracy that has imposed itself with the very baton-wielding goons that today attack the demonstrators.

This started out about election fraud. But like all revolutions, it has far outgrown its origins. What's at stake now is the very legitimacy of this regime -- and the future of the entire Middle East.

This revolution will end either as a Tiananmen (a hot Tiananmen with massive and bloody repression or a cold Tiananmen with a finer mix of brutality and co-optation) or as a true revolution that brings down the Islamic Republic.

The latter is improbable but, for the first time in 30 years, not impossible. Imagine the repercussions. It would mark a decisive blow to Islamist radicalism, of which Iran today is not just standard-bearer and model, but financier and arms supplier. It would do to Islamism what the collapse of the Soviet Union did to communism -- leave it forever spent and discredited.

In the region, it would launch a second Arab spring. The first in 2005 -- the expulsion of Syria from Lebanon, the first elections in Iraq and early liberalization in the Gulf states and Egypt -- was aborted by a fierce counterattack from the forces of repression and reaction, led and funded by Iran.

Now, with Hezbollah having lost elections in Lebanon and with Iraq establishing the institutions of a young democracy, the fall of the Islamist dictatorship in Iran would have an electric and contagious effect. The exception -- Iraq and Lebanon -- becomes the rule. Democracy becomes the wave. Syria becomes isolated; Hezbollah and Hamas, patronless. The entire trajectory of the region is reversed.

All hangs in the balance. The Khamenei regime is deciding whether to do a Tiananmen. And what side is the Obama administration taking? None. Except for the desire that this "vigorous debate" (press secretary Robert Gibbs's disgraceful euphemism) over election "irregularities" not stand in the way of U.S.-Iranian engagement on nuclear weapons.

Even from the narrow perspective of the nuclear issue, the administration's geopolitical calculus is absurd. There is zero chance that any such talks will denuclearize Iran. On Monday, President Ahmadinejad declared yet again that the nuclear "file is shut, forever." The only hope for a resolution of the nuclear question is regime change, which (if the successor regime were as moderate as pre-Khomeini Iran) might either stop the program, or make it manageable and nonthreatening.

That's our fundamental interest. And our fundamental values demand that America stand with demonstrators opposing a regime that is the antithesis of all we believe.

And where is our president? Afraid of "meddling." Afraid to take sides between the head-breaking, women-shackling exporters of terror -- and the people in the street yearning to breathe free. This from a president who fancies himself the restorer of America's moral standing in the world.

quinta-feira, 18 de junho de 2009

Saúde nos EUA e a proposta de mudança

The Right Prescription

Downgrading American Medical Care

The health proposals taking shape in the nation's capital intend to do more than help the uninsured. The changes will affect everyone. Politicians have promised that if you like your health plan, you can keep it. That may be true, but when you're sick and need care, you'll get a lower standard of care.

President Barack Obama called on health industry leaders to cut the rate of growth in national health care spending by 1.5 percentage points each year. Curbing medical spending will force cuts in hospital budgets, spread nurses even thinner, and reduce the number of diagnostic machines available, causing waits for treatment. Slowing the flow of dollars into healthcare will also depress the largest growth industry in the U.S. (17 percent of GDP) and cause layoffs. Healthcare currently employs 14 million people, more than ten times the U.S. workforce at General Motors and Chrysler.

In his weekly radio address June 6, the President claimed "skyrocketing costs" were making it impossible for families to afford health care. Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius was right on message, warning a women’s group about the same "skyrocketing costs." Senators Edward Kennedy and Max Baucus, chairmen of two committees drafting proposals, warned that soaring health spending threatens the stability of American families and the economy.

These doomsday scenarios are untrue. Health care spending is increasing at more moderate rates than in previous decades. Spending increased 10.5 percent in 1970, 13 percent in 1980, and consistently less than 7 percent in each of the last five years, reaching a low of 6.1 percent a year ago (see chart 1).

Chart 1

Chart 1

Americans Can Afford Excellent Healthcare

Each year since 1960, food and energy together have taken up a declining share of Americans' expenditures, while housing has taken up a steady share. This has enabled Americans to spend an increasing share of their budgets on another necessity, health care. These four necessities together consume the same share of Americans' spending now (55 percent) as they did in 1960 (53 percent). As further evidence, Americans are increasing the share of their spending that goes to recreation.

Chart 2

Chart 2

Chart 3

Chart 3

Chart 4

Chart 4

Of course, averages don't tell the whole story, and families who can't afford health insurance should be helped. The poorest Americans are already eligible for Medicaid and other government programs. As you will read later in this article, moderate income families can be helped to buy health coverage with vouchers, refundable tax credits, or debit cards. That's a low risk, "fix what's broken" approach.

On June 1, the president's Council of Economic Advisors released a report calling for Americans to cut back on health care. The report pointed to the skimpier health-care consumption in Europe and urged Americans to copy it. But the truth is, Americans can afford better health care than Europeans. Ninety percent of the difference in per capita health-care spending between Europe and the U.S. is due to higher incomes in the U.S. Wealth, not waste, accounts for the difference. What Americans cannot afford is a health-care overhaul based on bad information.

President Obama's health advisors are telling us we cannot afford our current standard of care. They have a different agenda.

A Lower Level of Care

Dr. David Blumenthal, a Harvard professor and key health advisor to President Obama, agrees that "the more people have, the more of it they tend to spend on healthcare." But the problem he sees is that as a nation's wealth increases and standards of medical care become higher and more costly, the lowest income groups get priced out. In his extensive academic writings, Blumenthal argued that government controls are needed to push down healthcare costs (and by inference, standard of care) to a level that everyone, including the poor, can afford, or to what government can afford to provide to everyone equally. The goal is not only universal coverage but also a similar healthcare experience for everyone, regardless of ability to pay (New England Journal of Medicine, March 8, 2001).

Dr. Blumenthal conceded that "government controls on health care spending are associated with longer waits for elective procedures and reduced availability of new and expensive treatments and devices." But he called it "debatable" whether the timely care Americans get is worth the higher cost.

Ask a cancer patient and you'll get a different answer. Delay lowers your chance of surviving cancer. Women in the U.S. are more likely to have regular mammograms than in other developed countries, according to the Commonwealth Fund. Their breast cancer is detected sooner. They are also treated faster and have higher survival rates, according to the Concord 2008 Five Continent Study. The figures reflect all American women, not just those with insurance.

Another key administration figure committed to cost cutting is Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel, a health policy advisor in the Office of Management and Budget and brother of Rahm Emanuel, the president's chief of staff. Dr. Emanuel says that the usual recommendations for cutting costs (often urged by President Obama) are window dressing: "Vague promises of savings from cutting waste, enhancing prevention and wellness, installing electronic medical records, and improving quality are merely 'lipstick' cost control, more for show and public relations than for true change." (Health Affairs, February 27, 2008.) Dr. Emanuel is right. A December 2008 Congressional Budget Office report confirms that none of these pain-free strategies will yield much savings.

True change, writes Dr. Emanuel, must include reassessing the promise doctors make when they enter the profession, the Hippocratic Oath. Amazingly, Dr. Emanuel criticizes the Hippocratic Oath as partly to blame for the "overuse" of medical care: "Medical school education and post graduate education emphasize thoroughness," he wrote. Physicians take the "Hippocratic Oath's admonition to 'use my power to help the sick to the best of my ability and judgment' as an imperative to do everything for the patient regardless of the cost or effects on others." (Journal of the American Medical Association, June 18, 2008.) Of course that is what patients hope their doctors will do.

But Dr. Emanuel wants doctors to look beyond the needs of their own patient and consider social justice. They should think about whether the money being spent on their patient could be better spent elsewhere. Many doctors are horrified at this notion, and will tell you that a doctor's job is to achieve social justice one patient at a time.

Dr. Emanuel also blames high U.S. spending on standards Americans take for granted. "Hospital rooms in the United States offer more privacy…physicians' offices are typically more conveniently located and have parking nearby and more attractive waiting rooms." (Journal of the American Medical Association, June 18, 2008.)

The administration's health advisors would like to see a European-style government-controlled environment of medical scarcity. Do Americans want to copy Europe?

Stimulus Legislation

Part of the framework for such controls was slipped into the stimulus legislation signed into law by President Obama on February 17. The legislation sets a goal that every individual's medical records will be entered into an electronic data system. More importantly, your doctor will be guided by electronically delivered protocols on what is "appropriate" and "cost-effective" care. Doctors who are not "meaningful users" of the system begin facing financial penalties in 2014. Patients insured by Medicare and Medicaid will be affected first, because the penalties are imposed by these programs. But private insurers historically have followed Medicare's lead.

How much leeway will doctors have? That's hard to say, because the legislation gives the Secretary of Health and Human Services total discretion to define "meaningful user" and to make the definition "more stringent" over time.

Medical knowledge is evolving so quickly that helping doctors keep up by delivering information on best practices would be beneficial. But telling doctors what to do for the sake of cost control in dangerous. The RAND Corporation, a nonpartisan research organization, found that often physicians did not give patients the optimal treatment for their condition. But over-treating patients was seldom the problem (only 11 percent of the time). Failing to give patients a needed treatment was four times as big a problem (46 percent of the time). That's why prompting doctors to do the right thing will help patients but not curb spending.

Dr. Blumenthal agrees: "Improved medical decision making is as likely to increase expenditures for underused services as it is to reduce expenditures for overused services." (New England Journal of Medicine, 2001). To control spending as President Obama promises, doctors will have to be instructed to provide less care. Government controls are a blunt instrument. RAND reported that Canada posts lower rates of cardiac procedures than the U.S. almost entirely by restricting their use for patients age 65 and older -- the time of life you're likely to need it.

In March, President Obama appointed Dr. David Blumenthal to head the system of computer-guided medical care as the National Coordinator of Health Information Technology. Just days later, Dr. Blumenthal settled a debate on whether the system will control doctors' treatment decisions. In an article in the New England Journal of Medicine (April 9, 2009), Dr. Blumenthal stressed that the real importance of computers is to deliver "embedded clinical decision support," a euphemism for computers telling doctors what to do. He predicted that if controls are too tight, physicians may resist the government encroaching on their treatment decisions: "many physicians and hospitals may rebel -- petitioning Congress to change the law or just resigning themselves to…accepting penalties." Dr. Blumenthal's latest article corrects CNN's Elizabeth Cohen and FactCheck.org's Lori Robertson, who insisted incorrectly that nothing in the stimulus legislation indicated "the government is going to tell your doctor what to do."

Also slipped into the emergency stimulus legislation was substantial funding for a Federal Council on Comparative Effectiveness Research, a board with a troubling mission. Studying which medication or device works best is obviously a good thing, but comparative effectiveness research is generally code for limiting care based on the patient's age. Economists are familiar with the formula already in use in the U.K., where the cost of a treatment is divided by the number of years (called QALYS or quality-adjusted life years) the patient is likely to benefit. In the U.K., the formula leads to denying treatments for age-related diseases because older patients have a denominator problem -- fewer years to benefit than younger patients with other diseases. In 2006, older patients with macular degeneration, which causes blindness, were told that they had to go totally blind in one eye before they could get an expensive new drug to save the other eye. It took nearly two years to get that government edict reversed.

When comparative effectiveness research appeared in the stimulus bill, Rep. Charles Boustany Jr., a Louisiana heart surgeon, warned to no avail that it would lead to "denying seniors and the disabled lifesaving care." Later, Sen. Jon Kyl introduced an unsuccessful amendment that would have barred the federal government from using the research to deny coverage for certain treatments. Now that comparative effectiveness funding is the law, President Obama recently appointed Dr. Emanuel to the Council, and he is likely to play a leading role because of his extensive writings on rationing care based on a patient's age.

Dangerous Misconceptions

There is more legislation on the way. Democratic leaders of three House committees and two Senate committees have pledged to have health-care bills ready for a vote by August. The misconceptions driving these legislative efforts could be dangerous to your health. One is that prevention will eliminate the cost of treating sickness. Prevention saves lives, but 80 percent of preventive measures do not save money. Most of the people who take cholesterol-lowering medications and other precautionary measures would not get sick anyway. Louise Russell, an economist at Rutgers University, concludes that "hundreds of studies have shown that prevention usually adds to medical costs." (Health Affairs, March-April 2009.) The economics of prevention are so clear that the only people who claim it saves money are politicians.

Nancy-Ann De Parle, director of the White House Office of Health Reform, said on March 23 that "we have to get to a system of keeping people well, rather than treating the sickness." That would make sense if all disease were behavior-related, but many cancers and other diseases are linked to genetics or unknown causes. De Parle's pronouncement echoes how Sir Michael Rawlins, a British health official, explains his nation's low cancer survival rates. The British National Health Service, he said, has to be fair to all patients, "not just the patients with macular degeneration or breast cancer or renal cancer. If we spend a lot of money on a few patients, we have less money to spend on everyone else. We are not trying to be unkind or cruel. We are trying to look after everybody."

This approach is deadly for those with serious illness. In the U.S., about 5 percent (.pdf) of the populace needs 50 percent of treatment dollars. The drumbeat for shifting resources from treatments to prevention should worry any family dealing with M.S., Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, or cerebral palsy, or with a history of cancer.

By far, the most dangerous misconception in Washington is that the way to rein in health spending is by slowing the development and use of new technology. Imagine any industry or nation thriving on such a philosophy.

Dr. Emanuel criticizes Americans for being "enamoured with technology." Dr. Blumenthal attributes fully two-thirds of the annual increases in health spending to medical innovation.

On that he is correct. A 2008 CBO study documented that at least half of annual health spending increases are due to new treatments and tests, not administrative costs, waste, or even the aging of the population. But the CBO report also reminded us that these innovations "permit the treatment of previously untreatable conditions."

Walk into an electronics store and you will see an array of products that did not exist twenty years ago. The same is true in healthcare, another industry where growth is driven by innovation. Treatments for heart disease and strokes are as unlike care in the 1960s as the new flat screen televisions are unlike the black and white sets of five decades ago. If you had a heart attack in the 1980s and made it to the hospital alive, you still only had a 60 percent chance of surviving until the end of the year. Now your chance is over 90 percent. Your chance of surviving a stroke is more than twice as high as it was three decades ago.

Overall health spending could be reduced by 30 to 40 percent by settling for the standard of cure and symptom relief available to patients in 1960, but there is no demand for 1960s medicine at 1960s prices, say CBO researchers. Families dealing with incurable illnesses go to bed every night hoping the next day will bring a cure. The administration's strategy of slowing new technology in order to restrain spending will make the wait for breakthroughs longer.

A Low Risk Alternative

It's one thing to criticize. What's needed is a low-risk way to help people who can't afford insurance. The U.S. Census Bureau shows that of the 47 million people identified as "uninsured," 14 million are already eligible for government programs such as Medicaid and SCHIP (for children) and simply need to sign up. Another 10 million have household incomes over $75,000. That leaves 23.7 million people who need help affording insurance, not 47 million.

Food debit cards help 27 million people buy food, similar to the number who need help buying health coverage. In all fifty states, debit card technology has transformed the federal food stamp program, which used to be notorious for fraud and abuse. (Only 2 percent (.pdf) of card users are found to be ineligible, according to the General Accounting Office.) Cards are loaded with a specific dollar amount monthly, depending on family size and income, and allow cardholders to shop anywhere. The same strategy could be adapted to provide purchasing power to families who need help buying high-deductible health coverage. It's what all Americans used to buy (see chart 5), and it's all that's needed for families with moderate incomes, who can afford a routine doctor visit.

Chart 5

Chart 5

Debit cards are better than refundable tax credits for three reasons. Many people are uninsured only temporarily (about 22 percent) and not at tax time. Also, some people don't file an income tax return. Finally, a refundable tax credit would remove even more people from an obligation to pay federal income tax at a time when half of Americans don't pay it.

Providing sliding scale assistance, based on household income, to families to purchase this type of coverage would cost $20 to $25 billion a year. The cost estimate could vary for two reasons. First, only a fraction of people who are eligible for government programs actually apply (50 percent of those eligible for food debit cards). Second, U.S. Census data show that many of the uninsured are newcomers to the U.S. (some here illegally). The largest influx of immigrants in any seven years in American history occurred in the present decade. In this same decade, the lion's share of the increase in the number of uninsured took place in the five Border States. In San Francisco, 61 percent of the uninsured are not U.S. citizens, according to public health officials there. The public has not yet decided whether newcomers should be covered.

Whatever the cost of debit cards, it will be less in both dollar terms and risk than a health-care overhaul that forces individuals and businesses to buy coverage and puts European-style limits on health-care consumption.

Fixing Medicare

On May 12, Medicare officials announced that the trust fund that pays for hospital care for seniors would run out of money by 2017. In unison, the administration's key figures rushed to blame "skyrocketing healthcare costs" for the crisis.

"The only way to slow Medicare spending is to slow overall health system spending through comprehensive and carefully crafted legislation," declared Secretary Sebelius. If rising health costs were to blame, Medicare would have been thrown into crisis in 1980, when annual health care spending increases topped 13 percent, instead of now, when the annual increase is less than half that. Demographics are to blame, and Congress has been warned every six months for decades that Medicare needs to be adjusted.

Telling all Americans they have to cut back on health care because Medicare is fiscally unsound is like ordering all Americans to go on diets and buy fewer groceries because the food stamp program is in trouble. Medicare can be fixed without subjecting the nation to a regimen of health-care scarcity. The safer alternative is to reduce the government's share of the healthcare bill rather than depressing the nation's largest industry and lowering medical standards for all of us.

The Congressional Budget Office, the nonpartisan research arm of Congress, has suggested alternatives, including asking wealthy seniors to pay more of their costs or inching the eligibility age upward, two months per year, until it reaches age 70 in 2043.

No Time to Spare

Members of Congress who oppose an overhaul of American healthcare don't have much time to woo public support for low-risk alternatives. The president's advisors have urged him to hurry his health agenda through. "Speed is essential," Dr. Blumenthal wrote. "Bill Clinton waited nine months to introduce his Health Security Act in 1993, which allowed opposition to mobilize and defeat him." (New England Journal of Medicine, November 2008.)

The president's team is also playing hardball. On May 11, the American Medical Association, pharmaceutical industry, insurance lobbyists, and other interest groups jointly announced that they would support the Administration's efforts to rein in health spending. Why would these groups go along? One answer is political arm-twisting, Chicago style. In a November 16, 2008 Health Care Watch column, Dr. Emanuel explained how business would be conducted to guarantee support for the President's health agenda: "every favor to a constituency should be linked to support for the health care reform agenda. If the automakers want a bail out, then they and their suppliers have to agree to support and lobby for the administration's health reform effort."

Families dealing with cancer and other serious illnesses need to pay attention to the changes being proposed in Washington, D.C. Proposals to rein in health-care spending will mean longer waits for a nurse, pressures on your doctor to restrict your care, and little hope that the medical breakthrough you need is around the corner.

Betsy McCaughey, Ph.D., is a patient advocate, founder of the Committee to Reduce Infection Deaths, and a former Lt. Governor of New York State. A footnoted version of this article will be available at www.defendyourhealthcare.us.

quarta-feira, 17 de junho de 2009

Como a Esquerda acaba com a Justiça

Usurpadores

Olavo de Carvalho
Diário do Comércio, 15 junho de 2009

Duas decisões recentes do judiciário brasileiro ilustram com perfeição a debacle moral irreversível que vem transformando esse país no paraíso dos criminosos.

Primeira: a Sexta Câmara do Tribunal de Justiça do Rio Grande do Sul manteve a sentença que absolveu um cidadão de vinte anos por ter mantido relações sexuais com sua namorada de doze. Na justificação da sentença, o Desembargador Mário Rocha Lopes Filho baseou-se em parecer do Ministro Marco Aurélio, do Supremo Tribunal Federal, “onde prevaleceu a interpretação flexível à rigidez anacrônica do artigo 224a do Código Penal, norma forjada na década de 40 do século XX, porém não mais adequada à hodierna realidade social.”

Com o nome de “flexibilização”, fica assim estabelecido que a prática do sexo com menor 14 anos, se consentida pela criança, não é mais estupro. O Desembargador deixou de informar que a adoção dessa regra é a reivindicação mais essencial e urgente do movimento mundial pró-pedofilia. Também não esclareceu se a liberação da pedofilia consentida vale só para crianças de doze anos ou também para as de cinco, quatro, e assim por diante.

A segunda decisão veio, ao que parece unanimemente, de oitenta juízes das varas de execução criminal no Rio Grande do Sul reunidos com o juiz-corregedor Márcio André Keppler Fraga na sexta-feira passada: não serão mais enviados à prisão os réus condenados que responderam ao processo em liberdade, exceto nos casos de crime hediondo ou se a pena estiver na iminência de prescrição.

A desculpa é a falta de vagas nas cadeias.

Essas duas medidas mostram que: primeiro, os juízes se desobrigam de cumprir as leis, passando a modificá-las ou inventá-las como bem entendam; segundo, usam dessa autoridade usurpada para forçar a introdução de novos critérios que vão diretamente contra as crenças majoritárias da população.

Inconformado com a segunda decisão, o promotor Fabiano Dalazen diz que o Ministério Público tentará derrubar a medida no Poder Judiciário. “Se a lei determina que o sujeito seja preso, ele terá de ser preso”, diz ele, com toda a razão. Talvez ele consiga seu intento, mas quanto tempo falta ainda para que todos os juízes passem a pensar como essa camarilha do Rio Grande?

Tanto eles quanto o Desembargador Lopes, que autorizou a pedofilia consentida, não são representantes confiáveis do Poder Judiciário: são revolucionários cínicos, empenhados em derrubar o sistema desde dentro. Isso não seria tão grave se eles fossem exceções, mas os critérios que eles seguem estão sendo ensinados aos estudantes em praticamente todas as faculdades de Direito deste país: a figura hedionda do juiz-legislador já não é mais exceção e tende a tornar-se dominante num prazo de poucos anos. Quando um desses indivíduos decreta que tal ou qual lei já não serve para a “hodierna sociedade”, ele transforma a moda e o capricho em autoridades soberanas, passando por cima do processo legislativo normal.

Duvido que haja um só deles que não tenha consciência do alcance letal do que está fazendo. As crenças bárbaras da mentalidade revolucionária adquiriram, em suas cabeças, o valor de mandamentos sacrossantos, diante dos quais a Constituição, as leis, e as preferências da população não significam nada. Como novos Robespierres, eles acreditam-se imbuídos do dever de salvar de si mesmos os ignorantes que não pensam como eles. São um novo Comitê de Salvação Pública, e sua vontade é lei.

Continuar acatando suas sentenças, como se a destruição das leis tivesse por sua vez valor legal, é sobrepor as presunções de meros indivíduos à verdadeira ordem jurídica.

Por definição, juízes não legislam. Quando o fazem, tornam-se usurpadores criminosos e ninguém tem o dever de obedecê-los. Cada um tem antes o dever de denunciá-los, de expô-los à execração pública e de fazer o possível para retirá-los de seus cargos antes que cometam mais algum desatino.

terça-feira, 16 de junho de 2009

EUA x Europa: educação

Why Europeans Have It Wrong About Americans

By Peter Baldwin in Los Angeles

Many Europeans think that the US is full of gun-toting maniacs and illiterate morons. In part two of his series on trans-Atlantic differences, American historian Peter Baldwin shows why Europeans have this -- and plenty of other facts about America -- plain wrong.

In a three-part essay for SPIEGEL ONLINE, American historian Peter Baldwin argues that the EU and the US are much more similar than they think. You can read part one of his essay here.

When compared to Europe, the US welfare state is often portrayed as miserly and undeveloped. And so it is, if the standard is taken to be Sweden or Germany. But if we look at the span of social policy across Europe, a different picture emerges.

Of course, America has no universal system of health insurance -- Michael Moore's 2006 film Sicko will ensure that no one forgets that. Some 15 percent of the American population is not covered. There is no question that being uninsured is unfair and brutal, nor that the lack of universal health coverage is the most pressing problem of American domestic politics. The true disgrace of American health care is that infant mortality is higher than anywhere in Europe. President Obama seems determined not to let the financial crisis sidetrack his promise to improve access to health insurance.

Yet despite the too-large fraction of those who are not insured, if you judge by disease survival rates, Americans are relatively healthy and well-serviced by their health care system. For diabetes, heart and circulatory disease and strokes, the incidence rates and the number of years lost to sickness are firmly in the middle of the European spectrum.

For many cancers, incidence rates are high in the US. This could, of course, indicate noxious lifestyles, but it equally may suggest more vigilant diagnosis. Whatever the reason, cancer mortality rates are surprisingly low. The US has a higher incidence than any western European nation of breast cancer, for example, but the percentage of women who actually die of the disease is at the lower end of the European scale. And for the four major cancer killers (colorectal, lung, breast and prostate cancer), all European nations have worse survival rates than the US.

Family Policy

Looking also at other forms of social policy, we see that the US fits broadly into the lower half of the European spectrum. As with its unemployment assistance, US spending on disability benefits is higher than in Greece and Portugal per capita, and it's practically at the same level as France, Italy, Ireland and Germany. (All figures used for comparison here account for differences in costs of living.) State pensions in the US may fall into the lower half of the European spectrum. But examine, instead, the total disposable income of the retired in America as a percentage of what the still active receive: Only in Austria, Germany and France do the elderly fare better.

It is commonly known that the American state does not help out much in terms of family provision. Parental leave is not statutory, and there are no guarantees that women can reclaim their jobs after pregnancy. Family allowances as such do not exist.

On the other hand, if one counts resources channeled via the tax credit system, as well as outright cash grants and services, and if one measures them as a percentage of GDP, the US ranks higher than Spain, Greece and Italy, and only marginally below Switzerland for family benefits. Public spending on child care (day care and pre-primary education) puts the US into the middle of the European scale. And total spending on pre-primary care per child is higher than anywhere but Norway.

True, public social spending in America -- that is, monies channeled through the state -- is undeniably low compared to many European countries. But other avenues of redistribution are equally important: voluntary efforts, private but statutorily encouraged benefits (such as employee health insurance) and taxes. If we take all of these together, the American welfare state is more extensive than is often realized, and the total social policy effort made in the US falls precisely at the centre of the European scale.

Education

And if we shift our focus to education, the contrasts across the Atlantic are, if anything, reversed. A higher percentage of Americans have graduated from university and from secondary school than in any European nation. America's adults are, in this sense, better educated than Europe's.

And the US lavishes more money per child at all levels of education than any western European nation. Europeans often believe that good US schools are private and only serve an elite. Yet American education is, if anything, less privatized than most European systems. Public education was among the first social programs to receive massive public funding in the US, and this has remained the case ever since.

Simone de Beauvoir was convinced that Americans do not need to read because they do not think. Thinking is hard to quantify; reading less so.

And Americans, it turns out, do read. By European standards, the percentage of illiterate Americans is average. There are more newspapers per capita in the US than anywhere in Europe outside Scandinavia, Switzerland and Luxembourg.

The long tradition of well-funded public libraries in the US means that the average American reader is better supplied with library books than his peers in Germany, Britain, France, the Netherlands, Austria and all the Mediterranean nations. They also make better use of these public library books than most Europeans. The average American borrowed more library books in 2001 than his or her peers in Germany, Austria, Norway, Ireland, Luxembourg, France and throughout the Mediterranean.

Not content with borrowing, Americans also buy more books per capita than any Europeans for whom we have numbers. And they write more books per capita than most Europeans, too.

American popular culture is fascinated by violence, much as Japanese culture is by suicide. Whether in The Godfather or the TV series The Wire, the image America broadcasts about itself is crime-ridden and violent. Most foreigners have been content to accept that analysis at face value. Not that it is entirely untrue: A horrendous number of murders are committed in the US, almost twice the per capita rate of the nearest European competitors, Switzerland, Finland and Sweden. Nor is there any doubt that the US imprisons a far higher percentage of its population than any of its peers.

But in other respects, America is a peaceful and quiet place by European standards. US burglary rates are highish, but below the Danish and British. The incidence of theft is better than in six western European countries. Assault is in the middle, on par with Swedish and Belgian rates. Rape levels are high, but sexual assault rates are moderate. Only Denmark, Belgium and Portugal are lower; Austria suffers three times the American rate.

American drug use is also (no pun intended) on the high side, but still -- excepting cannabis, where the figures are a smidgen above Britain's -- within the European spectrum. American white-collar crime is at the middle-to-low end of the European spectrum. The French suffer over six times the American rate of bribery. And the total American crime figures are in the low middle of the pack. Indeed, only relatively small countries -- Finland, Austria, Switzerland and Portugal -- are less crime-ridden than the US.

In the third section of this three-part essay, to be published on June 6, Baldwin discusses the myth of the over-motorized America, why the US beats Europe in terms of environmentalism and the real issue that separates the two.

Note: This essay originally appeared in the magazine Prospect.

EUA x Europa: socialismo

Sophisticated Europeans, Obese Americans?

By Peter Baldwin in Los Angeles

One side is home to red wine-sipping Europeans, the other to gun-toting Americans: A whole slew of stereotypes can be found on both sides of the Atlantic. But, as American historian Peter Baldwin argues in a three-part essay for SPIEGEL ONLINE, the EU and the US are much more similar than they think.

Talk about upending accepted certainties! While Europe is now in the hands of right-of-center parties (see France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Denmark and the UK's David Cameron pacing restlessly in the wings), America has "gone socialist."

Nationalizing the financial sector by the back door, considering massive subsidization of production industries, increasing state spending on health care and education, promising big investments in all manner of greenery, and limiting executive salaries: Is Obama beating Europe at its own game?

"We are all socialists now," Newsweek trumpeted in February, predicting that, "as entitlement spending rises over the next decade, we will become even more French." General Jack D. Ripper, Doctor Strangelove's nemesis, who fulminated against fluoridation as another of communism's nefarious advances, must be rotating in his Valhalla.

How quickly things change. It seems like just a few months ago that the presidency of the younger Bush -- unilaterally going to war, refusing to submit to international treaties, disparaging the seriousness of global ecological catastrophe -- convinced bien pensant opinion on both sides of the Atlantic that the gulf between the US and Europe was stark and growing ever wider. Indeed, old and well-worn mental ruts are hard to steer out of. It remains a staple of political discourse on both sides of the Atlantic that Europe and America are worlds apart. Everyone knows this.

The "wide Atlantic" thesis claims that there are fundamental differences between Europe and America. These are the alleged contrasts:

* America believes in the untrammeled market, Europe accepts capitalism but curbs its excesses.
* Social policies either do not exist in America or are more miserly than in Europe.
* America's lack of universal health insurance means that people die young and live miserably.
* Because the market dominates, America's environment is less cared for.
* Since social contrasts are greater in America, crime is much more of a problem than in Europe.
* While Europeans are secular, Americans are much more likely to believe in God and accept a role for religion in public life.

The two societies are thus divided along several fault lines: competition vs. cooperation, individualism vs. solidarity, autonomy vs. cohesion.

This is all familiar. But is it true? With the Obama administration moving the US to the left, there is perception of the Atlantic narrowing again -- to the dismay of American conservatives. Being "too European" is a stick Obama's opponents are fond of beating him with. But were the contrasts between Europe and the US ever as great as both sides imagine?

One way of answering this question is to look at the quantifiable evidence. Not all differences can be captured in numbers. But statistics allow us a first pass over the terrain and give us the opportunity to compare reliably. Let us compare four areas: the economy, social policy, the environment and finally --the hardest of all to quantify -- religion and cultural attitudes.

The evidence in each case allows two conclusions: First, Europe is not a coherent or unified continent. The spectrum of difference within even the countries of western Europe (which is what we will be looking at here) is much broader than normally appreciated. Second, with a few exceptions, the US fits into this spectrum. Either, then, there is no coherent European identity, or -- if there is one -- the US is as European as the usual candidates. Europe and the US are, in fact, parts of a common, big-tent grouping -- whether you call it the West, the Atlantic community or the developed world.

Economics

It is universally observed that America is an economically more unequal society than Europe, with greater stratification between rich and poor. Much of this is true. Income is more disproportionately distributed in the US than it is in western Europe. In 1998, for example, the richest 1 percent of Americans took home 14 percent of total income, while in Sweden the figure was only about 6 percent.

Wealth concentration is another matter, however. The richest 1 percent of Americans owned about 21 percent of all wealth in 2000. Some European nations have higher concentrations than that. In Switzerland in 1997, the richest percent owned 35 percent, and in Sweden -- despite that nation's egalitarian reputation -- the figure is 21 percent, exactly the same as for the Americans. And if we take into account the massive moving of wealth offshore and off-book permitted by Sweden's tax authorities, the richest 1 percent of Swedes are proportionately twice as well off as their American peers.

What about poverty? Not the same thing as inequality? Because inequality is greater in America, relative poverty is by definition also higher.

But absolute poverty rates look different. If we take absolute poverty to be living on the actual cash sum equivalent to half of median income for the original six nations of the EU, we see that many western European countries in 2000 had a higher percentage of poor citizens than the US -- not only Mediterranean countries, but also Britain, Ireland, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Finland and Sweden.

Unemployment benefits in the US, which are often portrayed as derisory in the European media, are actually higher than in many European nations. When measured on a per capita basis, Greece, Britain, Italy and Iceland spend less than the US on unemployment.

In the second part of this three-part series, Baldwin compares strengths in terms of family and education -- and shows why Americans are better-read than Europeans.

Note: This essay originally appeared in the magazine Prospect.

EUA x Europa: religião

Is the US Really a Nation of God-Fearing Darwin-Haters?

By Peter Baldwin

Is it only Europeans who want to save the environment and only Americans who discount Darwin? In the final part of his series on trans-Atlantic differences, American historian Peter Baldwin explains why these stereotypes don't work - and what the real differences between Old Europe and America are.

In a three-part essay for SPIEGEL ONLINE, American historian Peter Baldwin argues that the EU and the US are much more similar than they think. You can read part one of his essay hereand part two here.

In ecological terms, America is thought to be wasteful -- big cars, big houses, long commutes, cold winters, hot summers, profligate habits. Such perceptions of the country have combined with the Bush administration's cozy relationship with the oil industry and its refusal to sign the Kyoto Protocol to paint the nation as an environmental black hole. Once again, the numbers tell a different story.

Although oil use per capita is high in America, measured as a function of economic production (in other words, putting the input in relation to the output), it remains within European norms and, indeed, lower than Portugal, Greece, Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Iceland.

Between 1990 and 2002, America's carbon dioxide output rose, but per unit of GDP it fell by 17 percent -- a greater reduction than in nine western European countries.

In its output of renewable energy, the US is in the middle of the spectrum on all counts, whether biogas, solid biomass energy, geothermal or wind. American spending (public and private) on pollution abatement and control as a percentage of GDP is bested only in Austria, Denmark, Italy and the Netherlands.

Despite the myths of a hyper-motorized nation, Americans own fewer passenger cars per head than the French, Austrians, Swiss, Germans, Luxembourgers and Italians. Per capita, Americans rely on their cars more than Europeans. But adjusting for the size of the country, automobile usage is lower only in Finland, Sweden and Greece.

Similarly, Americans produce a lot of waste per capita, though the Norwegians are worse, and the Irish and Danes are close competitors. But they recycle as well as the Finns and the French, and better than the British, Greeks and Portuguese. Since 1990, Americans' production of waste has scarcely gone up per capita, while in all European nations for which figures are available, there have been big increases -- 70 percent in Spain, almost 60 percent in Italy and over 30 percent in Sweden.

"The Old World developed on the basis of a coalition -- uneasy but understood -- between humanity and its surroundings," the Guardian reassures its recycling readership. "The settlement of the US was based on conquest, not just of the indigenous peoples, but also of the terrain." Yet, despite such common European conceptions, American conservation efforts are strong by European standards.

The environmental activist Jeremy Rifkin insists that Europeans -- unlike Americans -- have "a love for the intrinsic value of nature. One can see it in Europeans' regard for the rural countryside and their determination to maintain natural landscape." Actually, the percentage of national territory protected in the US is about double that of France, Britain or even Sweden.

And conventional American farmers are far less chemicalized than their European colleagues. Thanks partly to their use of GM crops, they use pesticides sparingly. The Italians use over seven times as much, the Belgians even more.

Nationalism & Religion

Despite perceived differences in its economy or care for the environment, perhaps the most fundamental assumed gap between the US and Europe is in values. Americans are said to be nationalistic and religious, while Europeans are post-nationalist and secular. But even here there is reason to doubt the stereotypes.

Yes, Americans are patriotic and nationalistic but, according to the World Values Survey (undertaken between 1999 and 2001), not more than some Europeans. Unsurprisingly, Germans are least proud of their nation, and rather unexpectedly, the Portuguese -- not the Americans -- are most, with the Irish tied for second place.

Granted, Americans are more likely to think that their country is better than most others. But more Portuguese, Danes and Spaniards feel that the world would be improved if other people were like them, and a larger fraction of Americans admits that there are aspects of their country that shame them than there is in Germany, Austria, Spain, France, Denmark and Finland. And the Finns, Danes, Norwegians and Swedes are all more willing to fight for their country than the Americans.

Even on religion, there is reason to question an absolute polarity between the US and Europe. "Religion is palpable in US schools, places of work and public institutions," claims the Guardian. "God is invoked by soldiers and politicians in a way that would seem inappropriate in Britain." Puzzling, then, that Britain's head of state is known as the "Defender of the Faith," and the established church has 26 seats in the upper legislature.

The American observer of Europe is often baffled at European claims to secularism since official expressions of religion are so public and yet -- apparently -- so taken for granted. A 10th-century depiction of the crucifixion, for example, is part of every Danish passport, regardless of whether its bearer is -- as many nowadays are -- a pious Muslim.

American church attendance and religious belief is not off the European scale if one compares it with Europe's Catholic regions. A smaller percentage of Americans consider themselves religious than the Portuguese and Italians. Proportionately fewer Americans say they believe in God than the Irish and Portuguese.

Moreover, sociologists tend to explain high American church attendance as the outcome of market as much as spiritual forces. Greater competition has led to a richer variety and higher quality of offerings, while Europe's state-monopoly religions struggle to provide for their citizens' spiritual needs. Thus, if the issue is thus of supply and less of demand, the contrast between Europe and America may not be between religious and secular mindsets but, rather, between how -- if at all -- largely equivalent spiritual needs are fulfilled.

This is certainly a conclusion suggested by looking at attitudes to science across the Atlantic. Without question, Americans are more likely to believe in Creationism than Europeans. The modern American creationist, interestingly enough, no longer takes scripture as sufficient reason to believe the Biblical account of the origins of the world. The debate is, instead, conducted on the turf of science, with creationists attempting to argue the fine points of the age of the fossil record, suggesting that orthodox evolution has gaps as a seamless explanation, and otherwise indicating their acceptance that the modern world speaks the language of science.

The realm of scientific quackery in Europe, on the other hand, is much wider than in the US. Consider the sway of self-evidently daft positions like anti-vaccinationism among the Hampstead Bildungsbürgertum or the equally irrational rejection of the fruits of scientific reasoning, like the anti-GM (genetically modified) movement. In several European nations, astrology is more widely believed in than in the US, and homeopathy is relied upon much more often in Europe.

So if Americans are, on the whole, more religious than most Europeans, it does not follow that they have less overall faith in science. Societies with a strong faith in science can also have strong religious beliefs. True, proportionately fewer Americans firmly agree with the Darwinian theory of evolution than any Europeans other than in Northern Ireland.

But, in other respects, Americans believe in the Enlightenment project of human reason's ability to understand and master nature. They fall in the European middle ground in approving animal testing to save human lives. Perhaps most tellingly, more American pupils agree with the statement that science helps them understand the world than in any European nation other than Italy and Portugal.

The Individual vs. The State

They may be scientific, then, but Americans are also thought of as die-hard individualists who live in a society of sharp elbows and an ethos of live and let live. They are imagined to be unusually anti-governmental in their political ideology -- practically anarchists, by European standards.

Yet a Pew Foundation survey in 2007 found that proportionately fewer Americans worried that the government had too much control than did Germans and Italians, with the French at the same level and the British just a percentage point lower. And a higher percentage of Americans trust their government than all Europeans, except only the Swiss and the Norwegians -- although no people, truth be told, demonstrates much faith in their elected representatives.

But talk is cheap, and these findings may indicate desire as much as reality. The trust of Americans in their state apparatus can be measured more concretely by their willingness to pay taxes. Unlike many Europeans, Americans pay the taxes required of them. Only in Austria and Switzerland are the underground economies as small. Tax avoidance is over three times the American level in Greece and Italy.

The archetypal Montana survivalist so beloved of the European media -- holed up in his shack and determined to resist the government's impositions -- is as uncharacteristic of America as the Basque or Corsican separatist -- ready to kill for his cause -- is of Europe.

The Real Difference

These are just a few examples of how the presumed chasm dividing the Atlantic is not, in fact, nearly as deep as opinion among the chattering classes and their mouthpieces believes. Why, then, does this notion persist -- even though a sober look at its empirical basis suggests that it is an inverted pyramid, a lot of conclusions perched on flimsy premises?

For one thing, the European press wants the juicy, titillating low-down. And America certainly dishes that up. It is not a culture accustomed to putting its best foot forward. Is there another nation that washes its dirty laundry so publicly? British tabloids aside, is there one where the seamy underbelly is more readily proffered for inspection? Hence that genre of such fascination to the European chattering classes: the tedious travelogue by the sophisticated European -- whether Bernard-Henri Lévy, Jean Baudrillard or Borat -- observing American yokels and reporting back with the smug assurance of superiority to other sophisticated Europeans.

Moreover, Europe's various cultures are ones still steeped in the lore of national stereotypes and quite happy to wring from them whatever elixir can be had.

Who can forget Edith Cresson, Mitterand's prime minister, who was convinced that no Frenchman was gay, while the English were all limp-wristed poofs? Or consider the extent to which no Europeans -- however otherwise politically correct -- can be shaken in their conviction that the Roma really are shifty and thieving.

Having a trans-Atlantic whipping boy is convenient and serves politically useful purposes, especially if there is little else that you can agree on. The purveyors of anti-Americanism in Europe appear to have rediscovered the truism that nothing unites like a common enemy.

And the Bush administration played into their hands by serving up caricatures by the spadeful. It will be interesting to see how the European pundits deal with Obama once he does something they do not like. While Bush could be portrayed as an ignorant cowboy, which of the available stereotypes will they dare lambast Obama with?

Here, we come to the grain of truth to the Atlantic divide. If there is anything that most separates American society from Europe, it is the continuing presence of an ethnically distinct underclass. Even as other outsiders have successfully assimilated, the tragic resonances of slavery in the black urban ghettos of America continue to prevail.

Indeed, take out the black underclass from the crime statistics, and American murder rates fall to European levels, below those in Switzerland and Finland, and even squeaking in under Sweden. Child poverty rates, which are scandalously high in the US, fall to below British, Italian and Spanish levels if we look at the figures for whites only. PISA scores for American whites (ranking secondary school proficiency, in this case, for combined science literacy in 2006) come above every European nation other than Finland and the Netherlands.

This is not meant to excuse the atrocious negligence with which the problems of racism have been dealt in the US. But it does suggest that, far more than any grand opposition of worldviews or ideologies, it is the still unresolved legacy of slavery and its tragic modern consequence that distinguishes -- to the extent anything does -- America from Europe. Whether Obama's election will mark a turning point in this respect remains to be seen.

And if it is this distinct urban underclass that most separates the US from Europe, Europeans should pay notice. In this respect, their societies are rapidly becoming more like America's. Europe's birthrates have plummeted, and immigration continues unabated. It is a demographic certainty that an ethnically and religiously distinct lower class in Europe will grow in the decades to come.

Perhaps Europe will turn out to have been lucky. Having instituted universalist social policies, highly regulated labor markets and redistributive fiscal policies in the belief that they were all -- so to speak -- being kept "in the family," Europe may weather the expansion of its social community. On the other hand, it may be that the social fabric will fray.

No one is arguing that America is Sweden. But neither is Britain, Italy, or even France. And since when does Sweden represent "Europe" -- at least anymore than the ethnically homogenous, socially liberal state of Vermont does America? Europe is not the continent alone, and certainly not just its northern regions.

With the entrance of all the new EU nations, it has just become a great deal larger. These new entrants are not just poorer than Old Europe. They, like Europe's many recent immigrants from Asia and Africa, are religious, skeptical of a strong state, unenthusiastic about voting and allergic to high taxes. In other words, from the vantage point of Old Europe, they are more like Americans.

And so, as Europe expands, the argument made here for western Europe -- that the differences across the Atlantic have been exaggerated -- will become irrefutable.

A note on sources: The data in this essay comes mostly from a handful of organizations that devote significant efforts to presenting internationally comparable figures: the UN, UNESCO, UNICEF, WHO, the IMF, the World Bank, Eurostat, the Sutton Trust, the World Values Survey, the ILO, the International Agency for Research on Cancer, the International Association for the Study of Obesity, the World Resources Institute, the International Energy Agency, the International Social Survey Programme and, above all, the OECD.

This essay originally appeared in the magazine Prospect.

EUA x Europa: semelhanças

A Narrower Atlantic

by Peter Baldwin

Talk about upending accepted certainties! While Europe is now in the hands of right-of-centre parties (France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Denmark and David Cameron pacing restlessly in the wings), America has “gone socialist.” Nationalising the financial sector by the back door, considering massive subsidy of production industries, increasing state spending on healthcare and education, promising big investments in all manner of greenery, and limiting executive salaries: is Barack Obama beating Europe at its own game? “We are all socialists now,” Newsweek trumpeted in February, predicting that, “as entitlement spending rises over the next decade, we will become even more French.” General Jack D Ripper, Dr Strangelove’s nemesis, who fulminated against fluoridation of the water as another of communism’s nefarious advances, must be rotating in his Valhalla.

How quickly things change. It seems just a few months ago that the presidency of the younger Bush—unilaterally going to war, refusing to submit to international treaties, disparaging the seriousness of global ecological catastrophe—convinced bien pensant opinion that the gulf between the US and Europe was stark and growing ever wider. Indeed, old and well-worn mental ruts are hard to steer out of. It remains a staple of political discourse on both sides of the Atlantic that Europe and America are worlds apart. Everyone knows this.

The “wide Atlantic” thesis claims that there are fundamental differences between Europe and America. These are the contrasts: America believes in the untrammelled market, Europe accepts capitalism but curbs its excesses. Social policies either do not exist in America or are more miserly than in Europe. America’s lack of universal health insurance means that many people die young and live miserably. Because the market dominates, America’s environment is less cared for. Since social contrasts are greater in America, crime is much more of a problem than in Europe. Meanwhile Europeans are secular; Americans are much more likely to believe in God and accept a role for religion in public life. The two societies are thus divided along several faultlines: competition vs co-operation, individualism vs solidarity, autonomy vs cohesion.

This is all familiar. But is it true? With the Obama administration moving the US to the left there is a perception of the Atlantic narrowing again, to the dismay of American conservatives—being “too European” is a stick Obama’s opponents are fond of beating him with. But were the contrasts between Europe and the US ever as great as both sides imagine?

One way of answering this question is to look at the quantifiable evidence. Not all differences can be captured by numbers, but statistics allow us a first pass over the terrain and to compare reliably. If we compare four areas: the economy, social policy, the environment and—hardest of all to quantify—religion and cultural attitudes, the evidence in each case allows two conclusions. First, Europe is not a coherent or unified continent. The spectrum of difference within even the 16 countries of western Europe (which is what we are mainly looking at here) is far broader than normally appreciated. Second, with a few exceptions, the US fits into this spectrum. Either, then, there is no coherent European identity, or—if there is one—the US is as European as the usual candidates. Europe and the US are, in fact, parts of a common, big-tent grouping—call it the west, the Atlantic community, or the developed world.

***

It is universally observed that America is an economically more unequal society than Europe, with greater stratification between rich and poor. Much of this is true. Income is more disproportionately distributed in the US than in western Europe. In 1998, for example, the richest 1 per cent of Americans took home 14 per cent of total income, while in Sweden the figure was only about 6 per cent. Wealth concentration is another matter, however. The richest 1 per cent of Americans owned about 21 per cent of all wealth in 2000. Some European nations have higher concentrations than that. In Sweden—despite that nation’s egalitarian reputation—the figure is 21 per cent, exactly the same as for the Americans. And if we take account of the massive moving of wealth offshore and off-book permitted by Sweden’s tax authorities, the richest 1 per cent of Swedes are proportionately twice as well off as their American peers.

What about poverty, not the same thing as inequality? Because inequality is greater in America, relative poverty is by definition also higher. But absolute poverty rates look different. If we take absolute poverty to be living on the actual cash sum equivalent to half of median income for the original six nations of the EU, we see that many western European countries in 2000 had a higher percentage of poor citizens than the US; not only Mediterranean countries, but also Britain, Ireland, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Finland and Sweden. Unemployment benefits in the US, often portrayed as derisory in the European media, are actually higher than in many European nations. Greece, Britain, Italy and Iceland spend less than the US on unemployment, measured per capita.

The US welfare state is often portrayed as miserly and undeveloped compared to Europe. And so it is, if the standard is taken to be Sweden or Germany. But if we look at the span of social policy across Europe, a different picture emerges.

Of course, America has no universal system of health insurance. Michael Moore’s 2006 film Sicko will ensure that no one forgets that. As a result, 15 per cent of its population is not covered. There is no question that being uninsured is unfair and brutal, nor that the lack of universal health coverage is the most pressing problem of American domestic politics. The true disgrace of American healthcare is that infant mortality is higher than anywhere in Europe. President Obama seems determined not to let the financial crisis sidetrack his promise to improve access to health insurance.

Yet despite the too large fraction of those who are not insured, Americans are relatively healthy and well-serviced by their healthcare system—to judge by disease survival rates. For diabetes, heart and circulatory disease and strokes, the incidence rates and the number of years lost to sickness are firmly in the middle of the European spectrum. And for the four major cancer killers (colorectal, lung, breast and prostate), all European nations have worse survival rates than the US.

Looking also at other forms of social policy, we see that the US fits broadly into the lower half of the European spectrum. As with its unemployment assistance, US spending on disability benefits is higher than in Greece and Portugal per capita, and practically at the same level as France, Italy, Ireland and Germany. (All figures used for comparison here account for differences in costs of living). State pensions in the US may fall into the lower half of the European spectrum. But examine instead the total disposable income of the retired in America as a percentage of what the still active receive. Only in Austria, Germany and France do the elderly fare better.

It is commonly known that the American state does not help out much in terms of family provision. Parental leave is not statutory and there are no guarantees that women can reclaim their jobs after pregnancy. Family allowances as such do not exist. On the other hand, if one counts resources channelled via the tax credit system, as well as outright cash grants and services, and if one measures them as a percentage of GDP, the US ranks higher than Spain, Greece and Italy for family benefits. Public spending on childcare (daycare and pre-primary education) puts the US into the middle of the European scale. Total spending on pre-primary care per child is higher than anywhere but Norway.

True, public social spending in America—that is, monies channelled through the state—is low compared to many European countries. But other avenues of redistribution are equally important: voluntary efforts, private but statutorily encouraged benefits (like employee health insurance) and taxes. Given all of these, the American welfare state is more extensive than is often realised: the total social policy effort made in the US falls precisely at the centre of the European scale.

And if we shift our focus to education, the contrasts across the Atlantic are, if anything, reversed. A higher percentage of Americans have graduated from university and from secondary school than in any European nation. America’s adults are, in this sense, better educated than Europe’s. And the US lavishes more money per child at all levels of education than any western European nation. Europeans often believe that good US schools are private and serve only an elite. Yet American education is, if anything, less privatised than most European systems. Public education was among the first social programmes to receive massive public funding in the US and this has remained the case ever since.

Simone de Beauvoir was convinced that Americans do not need to read because they do not think. Thinking is hard to quantify; reading less so. And Americans, it turns out, do read. The percentage of illiterate Americans is average by European standards. There are more newspapers per head in the US than anywhere in Europe outside Scandinavia, Switzerland and Luxembourg. The long tradition of well-funded public libraries in the US means that the average American reader is better supplied with library books than his peers in Germany, Britain, France, Holland, Austria and all the Mediterranean nations. They also make better use of these public library books than most Europeans. The average American borrowed more library books in 2001 than their peers in Germany, Austria, Norway, Ireland, Luxembourg, France and throughout the Mediterranean. Not content with borrowing, Americans also buy more books per head than any Europeans for whom we have numbers. And they write more books per capita than most Europeans too.

***



American popular culture is fascinated by violence, much as Japanese culture is by suicide. Whether in The Godfather or the television series The Wire, the image America broadcasts about itself is crime-ridden and violent. Most foreigners have been content to accept that analysis at face value. Not that it is entirely untrue. A horrendous number of murders are committed in the US, almost twice the per capita rate of the nearest European competitors, Switzerland, Finland and Sweden. Nor is there any doubt that the US imprisons a far higher percentage of its population than any of its peers. But in other respects, America is a peaceful and quiet place by European standards. US burglary rates are fairly high, but below the Danish and British. The incidence of theft is lower than in six western European countries. Assault is in the middle, on a par with Swedish and Belgian rates. Rape levels are high, but other sexual assault rates are moderate. Only Denmark, Belgium and Portugal have lower rates; Austria suffers three times the American rate.

American drug use is quite high too, but still—excepting cannabis where the figures are a smidgen above Britain’s—within the European scale. American white-collar crime is at the middle to low end of the spectrum. The French suffer over six times the American rate of bribery. And the total American crime figures are in the low middle of the pack. Indeed, only relatively small countries—Finland, Austria, Switzerland and Portugal—are less crime-ridden than the US.

But what about other aspects of the social environment? In ecological terms, America is thought to be a wastrel. Big cars, big houses, long commutes, cold winters, hot summers, profligate habits: such perceptions of the country have combined with the Bush administration’s cosy relationship with the oil industry and its refusal to sign the Kyoto Protocol to paint the nation as an environmental black hole. Once again, the numbers tell a somewhat different story.

Although oil use per capita is high in America, measured as a function of economic production (in other words, putting the input in relation to the output) it remains within European norms, and indeed lower than in Portugal, Greece, Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Iceland. Between 1990 and 2002, America’s carbon dioxide output rose, but per unit of GDP it fell by 17 per cent—a greater reduction than in nine western European countries. In its output of renewable energy, the US is middle of the spectrum on all counts, whether biogas, solid biomass energy, geothermal or wind. Only Austria, Denmark, Italy and the Netherlands have higher levels of spending (public and private) on pollution abatement and control as a percentage of GDP than America. Despite the myths of a hyper-motorised nation, Americans own fewer passenger cars per head than the French, Austrians, Swiss, Germans, Luxembourgers and Italians. Per capita, Americans rely on their cars more than Europeans. But adjusting for the size of the country, automobile usage is lower only in Finland, Sweden and Greece. Similarly, Americans produce a lot of waste per head, though the Norwegians are worse, and the Irish and Danes are close competitors. But they recycle as well as the Finns and the French, and better than the British, Greeks and the Portuguese. Since 1990, Americans’ production of waste has scarcely gone up per capita, while in all European nations for which figures are available, there have been big increases—70 per cent in Spain, almost 60 per cent in Italy and over 30 per cent in Sweden.

“The old world developed on the basis of a coalition—uneasy but understood—between humanity and its surroundings,” the Guardian reassures its recycling readership. “The settlement of the US was based on conquest, not just of the indigenous peoples, but also of the terrain.” Yet, despite such common European conceptions, American conservation efforts are strong by European standards. The environmental activist Jeremy Rifkin insists that Europeans, unlike Americans, have “a love for the intrinsic value of nature. One can see it in Europeans’ regard for the rural countryside and their determination to maintain natural landscape.” Actually, the percentage of national territory protected in the US is about double that of France, Britain or even Sweden. And conventional American farmers are far less “chemicalised” than their European colleagues. Thanks partly to their use of GM crops, they use pesticides sparingly. The Italians use over seven times as much, the Belgians even more.

***



Despite perceived differences in its economy and care for the environment, perhaps the most fundamental assumed gap between the US and Europe is in values. Americans are said to be nationalistic and religious, while Europeans are post-nationalist and secular. But even here there is reason to doubt the stereotypes.

Yes, Americans are patriotic and nationalistic, but according to the World Values Survey, undertaken between 1999 and 2001, not more than some Europeans. Unsurprisingly, Germans are least proud of their nation, and rather unexpectedly, the Portuguese—not the Americans—are most, with the Irish tied for second place. Granted, Americans are more likely to think that their country is better than most others. But more Portuguese, Danes and Spaniards feel that the world would be improved if other people were like them, and a larger fraction of Americans admit that there are aspects of their country that shame them than do the Germans, Austrians, Spanish, French, Danes and Finns.

Even on religion, there is reason to question an absolute polarity between the US and Europe. “Religion is palpable in US schools, places of work and public institutions,” claims the Guardian. “God is invoked by soldiers and politicians in a way that would seem inappropriate in Britain.” Puzzling, then, that Britain’s head of state is known as the “Defender of the Faith,” and the established church has 26 seats in the upper legislature. The American observer of Europe is often baffled at European claims to secularism since official expressions of religion are so public, and yet—apparently—so taken for granted. A 10th-century depiction of the crucifixion, for example, is part of every Danish passport, regardless of whether its bearer is, as many nowadays are, a pious Muslim.

American church attendance and religious belief is not off the European scale if one compares them with Europe’s Catholic regions. A smaller percentage of Americans consider themselves religious than the Portuguese and Italians. Proportionately fewer Americans say they believe in God and always have than the Irish and Portuguese. Moreover, sociologists tend to explain high American church attendance as the outcome of market forces as much as spiritual ones. Greater competition has led to a richer variety and higher quality of offerings, while Europe’s state-monopoly religions struggle to provide for their citizens’ spiritual needs. If the issue is thus one of supply and less of demand, the contrast between Europe and America may not be between religious and secular mindsets, but between how—if at all—largely equivalent spiritual needs are fulfilled.

This is certainly a conclusion suggested by looking at attitudes to science across the Atlantic. Without question, Americans are more likely to believe in creationism than Europeans. Yet the modern American creationist, interestingly enough, no longer takes scripture as sufficient reason to believe the biblical account of the origins of the world. The debate is instead conducted on the turf of science, with creationists attempting to argue the fine points of the age of the fossil record, suggesting that orthodox evolution has gaps as a seamless explanation, and otherwise indicating their acceptance that the modern world speaks the language of science. The realm of scientific quackery in Europe, on the other hand, is much wider than in the US. Consider the sway of self-evidently daft positions like anti-vaccinationism among the Hampstead Bildungsbürgertum, or the equally irrational rejection of the fruits of scientific reasoning, like the anti-GM movement. Astrology is more widely believed in several European nations than in the US, and homeopathy is relied upon much more often in Europe.

So if Americans are, on the whole, more religious than most Europeans, it does not follow that they have less overall faith in science. Societies with a strong faith in science can also have strong religious beliefs. True, proportionately fewer Americans firmly agree with the Darwinian theory of evolution than any Europeans other than in Northern Ireland. But in other respects, Americans believe in the Enlightenment project of human reason’s ability to understand and master nature. They fall in the European middle ground in approving animal testing to save human lives. Perhaps most tellingly, more American pupils agree with the statement that science helps them to understand the world than in any European nations other than Italy and Portugal.

***

They may be scientific, then, but Americans are also thought of as diehard individualists who live in a society of sharp elbows and an ethos of live and let live. They are imagined to be unusually anti-governmental in their political ideology; practically anarchists by European standards. Yet a Pew Foundation survey in 2007 found that proportionately fewer Americans worried that the government had too much control than did Germans and Italians, with the French at the same level and the British just a percentage point lower. And a higher percentage of Americans trust their government than all Europeans, except only the Swiss and the Norwegians (although no people, truth be told, demonstrate much faith in their elected representatives.)

But talk is cheap, and these findings may indicate desire as much as reality. The trust of Americans in their state apparatus, then, can be measured more concretely by their willingness to pay taxes. Unlike many Europeans, Americans pay the taxes required of them. Only in Austria and Switzerland are the underground economies as small. Tax avoidance is over three times the American level in Greece and Italy. The archetypal Montana survivalist—so beloved of the European media—holed up in his shack, determined to resist the government’s impositions, is as uncharacteristic of America as the Basque or Corsican separatist, ready to kill for his cause, is of Europe.

***

These are just a few examples of the way in which the presumed chasm dividing the Atlantic is not, in fact, nearly as deep as opinion among the chattering classes and their mouthpieces believes. Why, then, does this notion persist? For one thing, the European press wants the juicy, titillating lowdown. And America certainly dishes that up. Is there any other nation that washes its dirty laundry so publicly? Hence that genre of such fascination to the European chattering classes: the tedious travelogue by the sophisticated European, whether BHL, Baudrillard or Borat, observing American yokels and reporting back with the smug assurance of superiority to other sophisticated Europeans.

Moreover, Europe’s various cultures are ones still steeped in the lore of national stereotypes and quite happy to wring whatever elixir can be had from them. Who can forget Edith Cresson, Mitterrand’s prime minister, convinced that no Frenchman was gay, while the English were all limp-wristed poofs? Or consider the extent to which no Europeans, however otherwise politically correct, can be shaken in their conviction that the Roma really are shifty and thieving. Having a transatlantic whipping boy is convenient and serves politically useful purposes, especially if there is little else that you can agree on. The purveyors of anti-Americanism in Europe appear to have rediscovered the truism that nothing unites like a common enemy. And the Bush administration played into their hands by serving up caricatures by the spadeful. It will be interesting to see how the European pundits deal with Obama once he does something they do not like. While Bush could be portrayed as an ignorant cowboy, which of the available stereotypes will they dare lambast Obama with?

Here, we come to the grain of truth to the Atlantic divide. If there is anything that most separates American society from Europe, it is the continuing presence of an ethnically distinct underclass. Even as other outsiders have successfully assimilated, the tragic resonances of slavery in the black urban ghettos of America continue to prevail. Indeed, take out the black underclass from the crime statistics and American murder rates fall to European levels, below those in Switzerland and Finland, and even squeaking in under Sweden. Child poverty rates, which are scandalously high in the US, fall to below British, Italian and Spanish levels if we look at the figures for whites only. PISA scores for American whites (ranking secondary school proficiency) come above every European nation other than Finland and the Netherlands. This is not to excuse the atrocious negligence with which the problems of racism have been dealt in the US. But it does suggest that, far more than any grand opposition of worldviews or ideologies, it is the still unresolved legacy of slavery that distinguishes—to the extent anything does—America from Europe. Whether Obama’s election will mark a turning point in this respect remains to be seen.

And if it is this distinct urban underclass that most distinguishes the US from Europe, Europeans should take notice. Europe’s birthrates have plummeted and immigration continues unabated. It is a demographic certainty that an ethnically and religiously distinct lower class in Europe will grow in the decades to come. Perhaps Europe will turn out to have been lucky. Having instituted universalist social policy, highly regulated labour markets and redistributive fiscal policy in the belief that it was all, so to speak, being kept “in the family,” Europe may weather the expansion of its social community. On the other hand, the social fabric may fray.

No one is arguing that America is Sweden. But nor is Britain, Italy, or even France. And since when does Sweden represent “Europe”—at least anymore than the ethnically homogenous, socially liberal state of Vermont does America? Europe is not the continent alone, and certainly not just its northern regions. With the entrance of all the new EU nations, it has just become a great deal larger. These new entrants are not just poorer than old Europe. They, like Europe’s many recent immigrants from Asia and Africa, are religious, sceptical of a strong state, unenthusiastic about voting and allergic to high taxes. In other words, from the vantage of old Europe, they are more like Americans. And so as Europe expands, the argument made here for western Europe—that the differences across the Atlantic have been exaggerated—will become irrefutable.

The data in this article comes mostly from those organisations that provide internationally comparable figures: the UN, Unesco, Unicef, WHO, the IMF, the World Bank, Eurostat, the Sutton Trust, the World Values Survey, the ILO, the International Agency for Research on Cancer, the International Association for the Study of Obesity, the World Resources Institute, the International Energy Agency, the International Social Survey Programme and, above all, the OECD.

segunda-feira, 15 de junho de 2009

O problema com a abordagem multiculturalista: a falta de pesos

O que é fisicamente semelhante pode ser moralmente diferente. Ex.: duas pessoas disparam suas armas. A primeira é um bandido em fuga. A segunda é um policial em perseguição. O problema dos exemplos abaixo é que não há nem mesmo semelhança física. Nesses casos, a ausência de pesos para julgamento de valor é ainda mais grave.
-------------------------------------
By Charles Krauthammer
Obama Hovers From on High
"And the Spirit of God hovered upon the face of the waters"
-- Genesis 1:2

When President Obama returned from his first European trip, I observed that while over there he had been "acting the philosopher-king who hovers above the fray mediating" between America and the world. Now that Obama has returned from his "Muslim world" pilgrimage, even the left agrees. "Obama's standing above the country, above -- above the world. He's sort of God," Newsweek's Evan Thomas said to a concurring Chris Matthews, reflecting on Obama's lofty perception of himself as the great transcender.
Not that Obama considers himself divine. (He sees himself as merely messianic, or, at worst, apostolic.) But he does position himself as hovering above mere mortals, mere country, to gaze benignly upon the darkling plain beneath him where ignorant armies clash by night, blind to the common humanity that only he can see. Traveling the world, he brings the gospel of understanding and godly forbearance. We have all sinned against each other. We must now look beyond that and walk together to the sunny uplands of comity and understanding. He shall guide you. Thus:
(A) He told Iran that, on the one hand, America once helped overthrow an Iranian government, while on the other hand "Iran has played a role in acts of hostage-taking and violence against U.S. troops and civilians." (Played a role?!) We have both sinned; let us bury the past and begin anew.
(B) On religious tolerance, he gently referenced the Christians of Lebanon and Egypt, then lamented that the "divisions between Sunni and Shia have led to tragic violence" (note the use of the passive voice). He then criticized (in the active voice) Western religious intolerance for regulating the wearing of the hijab -- after citing America for making it difficult for Muslims to give to charity.
(C) Obama offered Muslims a careful admonition about women's rights, noting how denying women education impoverishes a country -- balanced, of course, with this: "Issues of women's equality are by no means simply an issue for Islam." Example? "The struggle for women's equality continues in many aspects of American life."
Well, yes. On the one hand, there certainly is some American university where the women's softball team has received insufficient Title IX funds -- while, on the other hand, Saudi women showing ankle are beaten in the street, Afghan school girls have acid thrown in their faces, and Iranian women are publicly stoned to death for adultery. (Gays, as well -- but then again we have Prop 8.) We all have our shortcomings, our national foibles. Who's to judge?
That's the problem with Obama's transcultural evenhandedness. It gives the veneer of professorial sophistication to the most simple-minded observation: Of course there are rights and wrongs in all human affairs. Our species is a fallen one. But that doesn't mean that these rights and wrongs are of equal weight.
A CIA rent-a-mob in a coup 56 years ago does not balance the hostage-takings, throat-slittings, terror bombings and wanton slaughters perpetrated for 30 years by a thug regime in Tehran (and its surrogates) that our own State Department calls the world's "most active state sponsor of terrorism."
True, France prohibits the wearing of the hijab in certain public places, in part to allow the force of law to protect Muslim women who might be coerced into wearing it by neighborhood fundamentalist gangs. But it borders on the obscene to compare this mild preference for secularization (seen in Muslim Turkey as well) to the violence that has been visited upon Copts, Maronites, Bahais, Druze and other minorities in Muslim lands, and to the unspeakable cruelties perpetrated by Shiites and Sunnis upon each other.
Even on freedom of religion, Obama could not resist the compulsion to find fault with his own country: "For instance, in the United States, rules on charitable giving have made it harder for Muslims to fulfill their religious obligation" -- disgracefully giving the impression to a foreign audience not versed in our laws that there is active discrimination against Muslims, when the only restriction, applied to all donors regardless of religion, is on funding charities that serve as fronts for terror.
For all of his philosophy, the philosopher-king protests too much. Obama undoubtedly thinks he is demonstrating historical magnanimity with all these moral equivalencies and self-flagellating apologetics. On the contrary. He's showing cheap condescension, an unseemly hunger for applause and a willingness to distort history for political effect.
Distorting history is not truth-telling but the telling of soft lies. Creating false equivalencies is not moral leadership but moral abdication. And hovering above it all, above country and history, is a sign not of transcendence but of a disturbing ambivalence toward one's own country.

A morte do socialismo na Europa

A mídia anunciou aplamente a morte do capitalismo com a crise financeira de 2009. Quem poderia imaginar que as eleições européias mostrariam justamente o contrário?

Diogo Mainardi

Eugh!

"Agora há menos socialistas na Europa do que naassessoria de imprensa da Petrobras. Os imigrantesbeijam, tocam e cutucam a unha do pé. Os europeus fizeram uma escolha. Entre os socialistas, que acolhemos estrangeiros, e os direitistas, que prometem mandá-los embora, eles preferiram os direitistas"

Um dos concorrentes do Big Brother do Reino Unido é nosso – é do Brasil. Os redatores do programa o caracterizaram da seguinte maneira:
"Ele abraça! Ele beija! Ele toca! É um fato cultural. Ao menos é o que ele diz...".
Além de beijar e de tocar, Rodrigo Lopes – esse é seu nome – também sonha em ficar preso no elevador com a rainha Elizabeth, tira meleca do nariz e cutuca a unha do pé. Comentário enojado dos redatores do Big Brother:
"Eugh!".
Como foi que ele, Rodrigo Lopes, acarinhando um, molestando o outro, tirando meleca do nariz e cutucando a unha do pé, acabou com o socialismo na Europa? Aconteceu de uma hora para a outra. A Europa tolerante, a Europa miscigenada, a Europa tomada por imigrantes de todas as partes, decidiu se fechar. Rodrigo Lopes é só um dos concorrentes estrangeiros do Big Brother do Reino Unido. Há também uma cantora russa, um estudante indiano, um estilista iraniano. Os ingleses, os franceses, os espanhóis, os italianos, os holandeses olharam essa gente toda e disseram:
"Eugh!".
Eleitoralmente, esse "Eugh!" representou, na última semana, a perda de 56 deputados socialistas – ou social-democratas – no Parlamento Europeu. Agora há menos socialistas na Europa do que na assessoria de imprensa da Petrobras. Só os lituanos ainda elegem socialistas. Os imigrantes beijam, tocam, tiram meleca do nariz e cutucam a unha do pé. Eles se dedicam também a um monte de outras besteiras. A maioria delas, ilegal. Os europeus fizeram uma escolha. Entre os socialistas, que acolhem os estrangeiros, e os direitistas, que prometem mandá-los embora, eles preferiram os direitistas, acabando – e acabando para sempre – com os socialistas.
Quando o poder público é tolerante com a ilegalidade, ele alimenta os intolerantes. Mas é uma palermice imaginar que o eleitorado europeu, rejeitando os imigrantes, tenha se tornado mais racista. Ele só tentou recuperar um certo sentimento de ordem que se perdeu nas últimas décadas. Num momento em que todos aplaudiam a retórica internacionalista de Barack Obama, com seus pressupostos de elasticidade moral, os eleitores europeus foram para o lado oposto, desafiando o dogma do multiculturalismo e reafirmando sua identidade local. Que mal há nisso? Nenhum.
Assim como a Europa repudiou os grandes planos de engenharia social, ela repudiou também os grandes planos de engenharia financeira. Nada de perder o controle do gasto público. Nada de imprimir dinheiro. Nada de zerar o juro. A receita europeia para recuperar a economia é mais simplória, mais caseira: aperto monetário e rigor fiscal. No ano passado, na ONU, Lula anunciou o triunfo do estatismo sobre o mercado, decretando a morte do neoliberalismo. Mas quem morreu primeiro foi o socialismo. "Eugh!"

Clóvis Rossi

Do Blog do Reinaldo Azevedo
Clovis Rossi escreveu na Folha deste sábado o artigo que jamais imaginei ler. Nesse estrito sentido, não deixa de ser realmente surpreendente. Desta feita, reproduzo inteiro, o que não faço no clipping. Um vermelho e azul com ele.
Quando a polícia é compreendida
O que mais me impressiona nos episódios da USP não é tanto a ação policial, embora condenável.“Condenável” por quê? Ele tem de dizer. A PM estava lá obedecendo a uma ordem judicial. Não deveria atuar? Os estudantes que cercaram e ameaçaram policiais não são “condenáveis”?
Não me impressiona pela quantidade de vezes que vi episódios semelhantes -e sofri na pele a violência, embora nada tivesse a ver com o peixe. Estava apenas cobrindo manifestações públicas, no Brasil, na Argentina, no Chile, em Seatle (EUA), na América Central etc.Como se vê, a polícia é mesmo uma instituição internacional… Existe também na Suíça, na Suécia, na Noruega… Rossi deveria se perguntar por que a extrema esquerda não se mobiliza contra o programa de ensino à distância nas universidades federais.
O que me impressiona é o fato de que pessoas da melhor qualidade, como o professor Dalmo Dallari, aceitem o recurso à polícia para resolver uma pendência interna da universidade.Acho que ele tentou escrever “pendenga”, já que “pendência” é outra coisa. Não é assunto interno, não. Quando um grupo organizado ameaça o direito de ir e vir e a integridade física de professores, funcionários e alunos, tem de se contido. E é um trabalho da polícia. Na universidade, na rua, na chuva, na fazenda ou numa casinha de sapé.
Não estou nem discutindo os argumentos que Dallari apresentou em sua entrevista de ontem à Folha. O fato é que sou de um tempo em que, em qualquer confronto polícia x estudantes, os Dallaris do mundo estariam do lado dos estudantes.Mais um que não quer “discutir os argumentos”… Como é que alguém pode se espantar com a opinião do outro sem “discutir os argumentos”? Nunca vi isso. Ou melhor: já vi. Mas as pessoas que raciocinam assim não costumam ter coluna em jornal. Quer dizer que os “Dallaris” da vida têm de estar sempre com os estudantes mesmo quando os estudantes estão errados? Mesmo quando estão depredando a universidade? A USP tem 80 mil alunos e quase 6 mil funcionários. Umas 500 pessoas, no máximo, impedem o funcionamento do restaurante, dos ônibus internos e as aulas na FFLCH (e não 2 mil…). E como ficam os outros 79.500 alunos? Devem ser privados dos seus direitos? “Estudante” é só quem faz barricada e impõe a sua vontade a quem não quer fazer greve? Publiquei aqui a carta de um grupo de alunos de alemão que foi vítima de uma ação verdadeiramente fascistóide.
Impressiona também o fato de alunos condenarem seus colegas e aceitarem a ação policial, como ficou claro em duas cartas publicadas, em dias sucessivos, no “Painel do Leitor”. Sou do tempo em que estudantes eram rebeldes, com ou sem causa, e portanto mereciam o apoio integral de seus colegas -ainda que cego, às vezes.Rossi não está preparado, vejam vocês, para o fato de os estudantes também evoluírem e apoiarem o movimento quando acham justo. E não apoiarem quando acham injusto. É inacreditável que escreva um troço como esse. Como já deixei claro aqui, uma parte do jornalismo de São Paulo é que promove a “greve” na USP, em parceria com um grupelho trotskista chamado LER-QI (falei ontem a respeito). Um único militante de esquerda, ex-funcionário da USP, Claudionar Brandão, ligado à LER-QI, pauta esse setor da imprensa. Quem deve ser chamado a atuar na universidade quando os direitos constitucionais são desrespeitados? Rossi escreveu um texto de assembléia, de passeata. Com ele, demonizou os não-grevistas, tentando constrangê-los, sugerindo que são insensíveis ou traidores da causa. ESPERO QUE OS NÃO CAIAM NO TRUQUE SUJO E CONTINUEM FIÉIS À CONSTITUIÇÃO DEMOCRÁTICA. Que não permite aquele tipo de constrangimento.
Até entendo que a rebeldia de hoje se dê em torno de questões mais pobres (ou estou sendo apenas saudosista? O que a idade permite, mas o bom senso desaconselha).É, Rossi, hora de ler Antero de Quental, bastante citado neste blog, mas nunca o suficiente:“Levanto-me quando os cabelos brancos de V. Exa. passam diante de mim. Mas o travesso cérebro que está debaixo e as garridas e pequeninas coisas que saem dele, confesso, não me merecem nem admiração nem respeito, nem ainda estima. A futilidade num velho desgosta-me tanto como a gravidade numa criança. V.Exa. precisa menos cinqüenta anos de idade, ou então mais cinqüenta de reflexão.”
O fato é que sempre me encantou um dos slogans-símbolo de 1968, aquele que dizia “seja razoável, peça o impossível”. Hoje, o impossível nem passa perto da pauta.É falta de leitura. Recomendo as Memórias de Raymond Aron para saber o mal que 1968 fez à universidade francesa. Rossi era um dos colunistas que pegava no pé de FHC, mangando da sua “utopia do possível”. Para o crítico, o possível é coisa que qualquer um pode fazer. Fora de uma linguagem, digamos, poética, o que quer dizer “pedir” ou “prometer” o impossível? Se for um assunto privado, é coisa de idiotas. Se for um assunto público, é coisa de vigaristas.
O empobrecimento da agenda talvez explique a desunião no meio estudantil. Até acredito que “entre os 2.000 estudantes que se manifestaram nesta semana estão alguns de nossos melhores alunos”, como escreveu ontem Vladimir Safatle, professor da filosofia.Pois é… Acredita em gente errada. Até os números de Safatle eram falsos. Como é falso que a PM tenha entrado de metralhadora na USP. Como é falsa a disparidade salarial que ele alegou em seu artigo. Uma soma de imposturas, conforme demonstrei ontem aqui.
São poucos, não? E ainda resta saber onde estavam os outros melhores alunos.Os REAIS MELHORES ALUNOS estavam estudando, Clóvis Rossi, em vez de se mobilizar para trazer de volta à USP um ex-funcionário cuja truculência é antológica, documentada. O problema, claro, é estar com a cabeça ainda em 1968 — seja na França, seja no Brasil. A universidade custa caro aos cofres públicos e deve produzir conhecimento.
Os petistas usarão os eventos da USP para atacar seus adversários tucanos, mas as críticas de Dallari indicam que o PT não reconhece futuro no movimento dos ultra-radicais. Gente como Rossi não se conforma com isso e está tentando ver se a coisa recrudesce. Só assim ele poderá dar algum lições a José Serra de como conduzir a questão. Provavelmente ministrará ao governador a receita que ministrava a FHC: “Ah, faça o impossível. O possível, até eu faço”.
À sua maneira, com efeito, ele escreveu o texto realmente impossível.
Eu disse: o principal jornal do país está sendo pautado pela Liga Estratégica Revolucionária — um grupelho trotskista que não deve encher um Fusca. Não, Clóvis Rossi, a crise não está na universidade nem é do estudantado. E você é a prova.
PS: A escória do subjornalismo na Internet — a ratazana, o anão… — vive acusando a Folha, injustificadamente, de “serrista”. Trata-se de uma tática para intimidar o jornal, empurrando-o para o ataque ao governador, o que provaria que eles estão errados. Fazem isso também com o Estadão. Infelizmente, alguns bocós caem no truque, provando, então, que são “independentes” de Serra, mas não “independentes” da escória, já que se deixam pautar por ela. E há quem faça o jogo por gosto mesmo. Num caso ou noutro, vale até se aliar à espantaosa “Liga Estratégica Revolucionária - Quarta Internacional”.
A universidade até que vai bem. E o jornalismo? Como vai?

Universidade Pública: domínio de sindicalistas comunistas.

Do Blog do Reinaldo Azevedo:
Trata-se de um vídeo de 2007 com um flagrante de um “debate” havido no Sintusp, o sindicato de funcionários da USP, atualmente sob o controle da Liga Estratégica Revolucionária — uma dissidência à esquerda (se é que me entendem) do PSTU. Sim, eles acham que o PSTU é um partido muito moderado, que atrasa a revolução…
Claudionor, que fazia manutenção de aparelhos de ar-condicionado na USP, é, atualmente, um “marxista-revolucionário” e o principal líder da greve. Outro companheiro seu fala em seguida. São os “estudantes” de Rossi. São os “garotos” de Gaspari.
Moacyr Aizenstein, professor da USP “de origem judaica” (como ele se define), pede a palavra e protesta, em termos educados, contra a distribuição de um panfleto do Sintusp que pregava, singelamente, a destruição do estado de Israel. Segue-se, como de hábito, uma gritaria dos diabos, que caracteriza a democracia dessa gente quando contrariada. O professor é impedido de falar. Bem, senhores… Claudionor toma a palavra. Temos, então, acesso a seu pensamento segundo ele próprio. Vejam o que pensa o “garoto de Gaspari”, o “estudante de Rossi”. Transcrevo a fala para que fique registrada. Vai que o filme saia do ar. Claudionor dá a sua aula (em vermelho). Faço pequenas intervenções em maiúsculas:
“Não se tratava de mera solidariedade ao povo palestino, de mera solidariedade ao povo libanês. Se tratava [ELE FALA SOBRE O PANFLETO QUE PREGA A DESTRUIÇÃO DE ISRAEL!!!] de solidariedade aos trabalhadores do mundo inteiro. Porque aquela luta que nós fazemos aqui cotidianamente [CLAUDIONOR ESTÁ REVELANDO QUAL É A SUA PAUTA REAL], a luta contra a Alca e seu significado, a luta contra o sucateamento do serviço público, corte de verba, destruição da educação, da previdência, retirada de direitos, imposta pelo FMI e pelo Banco Mundial, essa luta que nós fazemos aqui cotidianamente na forma de greves, de piquetes, de boletins e de panfletos, ou seja, em última instância [ATENÇÃO AGORA, LEITOR], é uma luta contra as determinações do império norte-americano; aquela luta está sendo travada, neste momento, de armas na mão no Oriente Médio [ENTENDEU? HÁ UMA RELAÇÃO ENTRE A GREVE NA USP E A LUTA NO ORIENTE MÉDIO], no Líbano e na Palestina.E nós não podemos deixar de ocupar a trincheira [A TRINCHEIRA NA USP, CLARO, QUE NENHUM DESSES CORAJOSOS TERIA CORAGEM DE BOTAR O BARRIGÃO NO PALCO DA GUERRA]. A questão da destruição ou não do estado de Israel é que virou o centro da polêmica [OLHEM COMO ELE É SINGELO!!!]. Em primeira instância, é necessário ressaltar que [SEGURE O ESTÔMAGO, LEITOR], como marxistas revolucionários, nós defendemos a destruição de todos os estados [PAUSA] burgueses! De uma forma geral. E aqui dizer que o estado de Israel representa os interesses e as necessidades do povo judeu [VEJAM QUE CLAUDIONAR SABE QUEM REALMENTE DEFENDE O POVO JUDEU!!!] seria o mesmo que dizer que esse estado brasileiro representa os interesses e necessidades do povo brasileiro [GENIAL! O TÉCNICO DE AR-CONDICIONADO FOI SUBLIME NESSA...]. Representa nada! Representa os interesses e objetivos da burguesia brasileira. Assim como o estado de Israel representa os interesses objetivos da burguesia israelense [SIM, ELE DISSE ISSO!!!].O Oriente Médio, ao contrário do que tenta nos fazer parecer, ao contrário do que tentam nos convencer o imperialismo norte-americano e o sionismo, não está dividido entre povos, judeus ou árabes, ou entre religiões distintas. Não é essa divisão que está colocada lá. Aquilo está dividido entre classes, certo? Está dividido entre burguesia e proletariado, está dividido entre burguesia subordinada ao imperialismo e burguesia que, por alguma razão local, resiste, em algum momento, à política do imperialismo. E daí a origem de todos os conflitos. Essa é a questão que tem de ser resgatada aqui. Porque, com certeza companheiros, não apenas enquanto houver o estado de Israel — enquanto houver o estado de Israel isso é mais grave —, mas, enquanto houver burguesia, enquanto houver capitalismo no Oriente Médio, não haverá paz entre os povos daquela região, como não tem havido paz entre povos de outras regiões do mundo.
Entendi. Esse pupilo de Gaspari e Rossi oferece aquela que é, certamente, a mais original e, bem…, revolucionária teoria sobre o conflito israelo-palestino. Claudionar é um mestre, um pensador. Começo a entender as ações do Sintusp. E não sejamos preconceituosos. Nesse particular, a diferença entre ele e Marilena Chaui é que ela não sabe consertar aparelho de ar-condicionado. Mas faltava o toque do sublime, que Claudionor não soube dar. Quem veio completar a sua obra foi um certo Marco Antonio, representante na USP da Liga Internacionalista Bolchevique (LBI):
“O que é que está em jogo no Oriente Médio? Está em jogo reformular, reenquadrar, os interesses do Pentágono e da Casablanca (sic)… da Casa Branca na região. Tá em jogo dominar as reservas de petróleo e de água. Tá em jogo aniquilar qualquer possibilidade de um governo burguês, de um governo burguês [AQUI ELE USA O DEDO EM RISTE COMO ÊNFASE, PARA DIZER QUE EUA E ISRAEL SÃO HOSTIS ATÉ A ESTADOS “BURGUESES”], como o governo do Irã ou o governo da Síria, dizerem um “aí” frente a Israel, frente ao sionismo, frente ao imperialismo. Essa é a questão fundamental. Nós, da LBI, nos colocamos do ponto de vista da defesa do marxismo, da revolução e do socialismo. Mas não vacilamos em nenhum momento em nos colocarmos ombro a ombro, lado a lado [ATENÇÃO, LEITOR!], pela vitória militar do Hezbollah, pela vitória militar do Hamas e das organizações de resistência. Por quê? Porque uma derrota do imperialismo, uma derrota sobre o sionismo, vai [SEGURE-SE NA CADEIRA] alavancar a luta do proletariado latino-americano, dos companheiros da Volks [!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!], que estão sendo atacados agora; vai alavancar a luta contra a reforma trabalhista e sindical que Lula quer implementar em nosso país”.
Ele termina, e uma doida começa a gritar em sinal evidente de histeria:“E viva o Hezbollah! E Viva o Hezbollah!”
Maluquice e irrelevânciaEu nunca tinha pensado em relacionar a “vitória do Hezbollah” à luta do proletariado latino-americano e aos “companheiros da Volks”. O tal Marco Antonio abriu a minha mente… Isso é maluquice? Julguem vocês mesmos. Isso é irrelevante? Bem, essa gente é quem é. E o que faz neste blog? Pois é…
Foram adotados por parte do jornalismo e do colunismo como paladinos das liberdades públicas. É o setor da imprensa que gente um verdadeiro frenesi ao provar que “é independente de Serra”, nem que isso custe passar a mão da cabeça a Liga Estratégica Revolucionária e da Liga Bolchevique Internacionalista (uma dissidência à esquerda do PCO… Calculem: até o PCO lhes parece moderado…). Amanhã, receberão o apoio dos companheiros Chaui e Candido, com, suponho, a cobertura da imprensa.
Ah, sim: o ombudsman da Folha reclamou da abordagem do jornal, que ele achou excessivamente centrada na questão policial. Ele quer mais destaque à pauta dos reivindicantes. Parece acreditar que Claudionor Brandão tem uma contribuição a dar à melhoria da universidade. E Claudionor já disse qual é: “essa luta que nós fazemos aqui cotidianamente na forma de greves, de piquetes, de boletins e de panfletos, ou seja, em última instância, é uma luta contra as determinações do império norte-americano”.
Que coisa, né? Esses caras são rejeitados pela esmagadora maioria da comunidade uspiana. Será que Rossi, Gaspari, Chaui e Candido vêem neles algo, assim, de “estratégico”? Será que já podem se candidatar a membros honorários da LER-QI?

terça-feira, 9 de junho de 2009

Luiz Carlos Bresser Pereira

Um Founding Father

Olavo de Carvalho
Diário do Comércio, 8 junho de 2009

“O desastre econômico que estamos vivendo é conseqüência da hegemonia, nos últimos trinta anos, do neoliberalismo – uma ideologia de direita que desregulou os mercados financeiros.” Assim diz, em artigo publicado na Folha do dia 1º. de junho, o ex-ministro da Economia Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira (v. http://www.bresserpereira.org.br/view.asp?cod=3393). Sem o mínimo esforço de provar essa afirmativa, ele salta direto dela para a conclusão automática de que, se a esquerda não está se saindo tão bem como deveria nas eleições européias, é “porque nos momentos em que esteve no poder nestes últimos trinta anos ela fez tantas concessões ao fundamentalismo de mercado neoliberal que, afinal, sua política muitas vezes se aproximava daquelas propostas pela direita”.

Ou seja: partindo da premissa de que a direita é sempre culpada de tudo, fica demonstrado que a ela cabem também as culpas da esquerda quando esta está no governo. Nem mesmo uma explicação de como simples “concessões” de um lado provam a “hegemonia” do outro o sr. Bresser-Pereira nos fornece, tão longe está da sua imaginação a hipótese hedionda de que alguém possa duvidar das suas palavras. Com o mesmo ar de certeza devota que não tem satisfações a dar aos fatos ou à lógica elementar, ele assegura que, embora contaminando-se pecaminosamente de direitismo na área econômica, no plano social os partidos de esquerda permaneceram limpos e santos, porque, recusando a tentação satânica de uma política baseada na meritocracia egoísta, “mantiveram-se fiéis à idéia de que cabe ao Estado aumentar a despesa social em educação, cuidados de saúde, previdência e assistência social e, dessa forma, diminuir a desigualdade”.

Excetuado o interregno George W. Bush – tão apegado a estatismos e intervencionismos que sua base conservadora acabou por chamá-lo de socialista e traidor –, o fato é que, no período mencionado pelo ex-ministro, quem esteve no poder não só na Europa, mas no mundo, foi a esquerda. Como é possível que uma época de tantos avanços do Estado no controle da sociedade fosse também uma de “hegemonia de direita” na esfera econômica? Seria a política – e especialmente a política social – uma esfera tão separada da economia ao ponto da independência absoluta? O Sr. Bresser-Pereira sabe que não é assim. Quando lhe interessa, ele consegue explicar os fracassos da economia pelos fatores políticos. Justificando seu pífio desempenho como ministro da Economia, ele afirma que, em 1987, renunciou ao ministério “por falta de condições políticas para o necessário ajuste fiscal” (v. http://www.bresserpereira.org.br/view.asp?cod=1279). Já quando se trata de achar um culpado para a crise americana e mundial, ele repentinamente faz abstração das “condições políticas” e proclama, contra toda evidência, que o mal veio tão-somente da desregulamentação do mercado e não da proliferação monstruosa das despesas estatais. Quando um governo acumula um déficit de três trilhões de dólares, só um raciocínio morbidamente artificioso e esquivo pode fugir ao óbvio e declarar que esse governo não acumulou dívidas porque gastou demais e sim porque “desregulamentou os mercados”. Aliás, se a desregulamentação foi tanta como diz o sr. Bresser-Pereira, como foi possível extrair da economia as quantias necessárias para cobrir as “despesas sociais” cada vez maiores? Como pode a “hegemonia neoliberal” coexistir com tal pletora de impostos e gastos públicos?

Se o ex-ministro esconde por trás de uma verbiagem insensata o papel dos fatores políticos na produção da crise, é porque esses fatores, inteiramente criados pela esquerda, forçaram propositadamente o aumento dos gastos estatais e a implosão do sistema bancário, visando a gerar artificialmente a crise de modo a poder lançar as culpas de tudo no espantalho do “neoliberalismo” e, com a cara mais cínica do mundo, propor como remédio ao desastre causado pelo excesso de gastos uma dose centuplicada de novos gastos miraculosamente investidos de não se sabe quais virtudes salvadoras (v. http://www.olavodecarvalho.org/semana/090305dc.html).

O próprio estilo com que esse homem escreve é o de um demagogo de palanque, não o de um cientista como ele se pavoneia de ser. Todo o seu arremedo de argumento baseia-se em estereótipos lisonjeiros para um lado, depreciativos para o outro, e no apelo às certezas da mitologia esquerdista, tomadas como premissas desnecessitadas da mais mínima prova ou discussão. Na prática do charlatanismo intelectual, esse indivíduo iguala-se a qualquer Emir Sader ou Frei Betto, compondo, com eles e outros tantos, o panteão dos Founding Fathers da miséria cultural e moral brasileira.

Igreja Católica na Irlanda

Jornalistas contra a aritmética

Olavo de Carvalho
Diário do Comércio, 5 de junho de 2009

Não há mentira completa. Até o mais ingênuo e instintivo dos mentirosos, ao compor suas invencionices, usa retalhos da realidade, mudando apenas as proporções e relações. Quanto mais não fará uso desse procedimento o fingidor tarimbado, técnico, profissional, como aqueles que superlotam as redações de jornais, canais de TV e agências de notícias. Mais ainda – é claro – os militantes e ongueiros a serviço de causas soi disant idealistas e humanitárias que legitimam a mentira como instrumento normal e meritório de luta política.

Na maior parte dos casos, os elementos de comparação que permitiriam restituir aos fatos sua verdadeira medida são totalmente suprimidos, tornando impossível o exercício do juízo crítico e limitando a reação do leitor, na melhor das hipóteses, a uma dúvida genérica e abstrata, que, como todas as dúvidas, não destrói a mentira de todo mas deixa uma porta aberta para que ela passe como verdade.

Um exemplo característico são as notícias sobre a tortura nas prisões de Guantánamo e Abu-Ghraib. Como em geral nada se noticia na “grande mídia” sobre as crueldades físicas monstruosas praticadas diariamente contra meros prisioneiros de consciência nos cárceres da China, da Coréia do Norte, de Cuba e dos países islâmicos, a impressão que resta na mente do público é que o afogamento simulado de terroristas é um caso máximo de crime hediondo. Mesmo quando não são totalmente ignorados, os fatos principais recuam para um fundo mais ou menos inconsciente, tornando-se nebulosos e irrelevantes em comparação com as picuinhas às quais se deseja dar ares de tragédia mundial. Só o que resta a fazer, nesses casos, é usar a internet e toda outra forma de mídia alternativa para realçar aquilo que a classe jornalística, empenhada em transformar o mundo em vez de retratá-lo, preferiu amortecer.

Às vezes, porém, o profissional da mentira se trai, deixando à mostra os dados comparativos, apenas oferecidos sem ordem nem conexão, de tal modo que o público passe sobre eles sem perceber que dizem o contrário do que parecem dizer. Isso acontece sobretudo em notícias que envolvem números. Com freqüência, aí o texto já traz em si seu próprio desmentido, bastando que o leitor se lembre de fazer as contas.

Colho no Globo Online o exemplo mais lindo da semana (v. http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/mat/2009/05/20/relatorio-confirma-abuso-de-milhares-de-criancas-por-parte-da-igreja-catolica-da-irlanda-755949622.asp, http://g1.globo.com/Noticias/Mundo/0,,MUL1161142-5602,00-INQUERITO+DENUNCIA+ABUSO+SEXUAL+ENDEMICO+DE+MENINOS+NA+IRLANDA.html e http://g1.globo.com/Noticias/Mundo/0,,MUL1161468-5602,00.html).

Não digo que o Globo seja o único autor da façanha. Teve a colaboração de agências internacionais, de organizações militantes e de toda a indústria mundial dos bons sentimentos. Naquelas três notas, publicadas com o destaque esperado em tais circunstâncias, somos informados de que uma comissão de alto nível, presidida por um juiz da Suprema Corte da Irlanda, investigando exaustivamente os fatos, concluiu ser a Igreja Católica daquele país a culpada de nada menos de doze mil – sim, doze mil – casos de abusos cometidos contra crianças em instituições religiosas. A denúncia saiu num relatório de 2600 páginas. Legitimando com pressa obscena a veracidade das acusações em vez de assumir a defesa da acusada, que oficialmente ele representa, o cardeal-arcebispo da Irlanda, Sean Brady, já saiu pedindo desculpas e jurando que o relatório "documenta um catálogo vergonhoso de crueldade, abandono, abusos físicos, sexuais e emocionais". Depois dessa admissão de culpa, parece nada mais haver a discutir.

Nada, exceto os números. O Globo fornece os seguintes:

1) A comissão disse ter obtido os dados entrevistando 1.090 homens e mulheres, já em idade avançada, que na infância teriam sofrido aqueles horrores.

2) Os casos ocorreram em aproximadamente 250 instituições católicas, do começo dos anos 30 até o final da década de 90.

Se o leitor tiver a prudência de fazer os cálculos, concluirá imediatamente, da primeira informação, que cada vítima denunciou, além do seu próprio caso, outros onze, cujas vítimas não foram interrogadas, nem citadas nominalmente, e dos quais ninguém mais relatou coisíssima nenhuma. Do total de doze mil crimes, temos portanto onze mil crimes sem vítimas, conhecidos só por alusões de terceiros. Mesmo supondo-se que as 1.090 testemunhas dissessem a verdade quanto à sua própria experiência, teríamos no máximo um total de exatamente 1.090 crimes comprovados, ampliados para doze mil por extrapolação imaginativa, para mero efeito publicitário. O cardeal Sean Brady poderia ter ao menos alegado isso em defesa da sua Igreja, mas, alma cristianíssima, decerto não quis incorrer em semelhante extremismo de direita.

Da segunda informação, decorre, pela aritmética elementar, que 1.090 casos ocorridos em 250 instituições correspondem a 4,36 casos por instituição. Distribuídos ao longo de sete décadas, são 0,06 casos por ano para cada instituição, isto é, um caso a cada dezesseis anos aproximadamente. Mesmo que todos esses casos fossem de pura pedofilia, nada aí se parece nem de longe com o “abuso sexual endêmico” denunciado pelo Globo. Porém a maior parte dos episódios relatados não tem nada a ver com abusos sexuais, limitando-se a castigos corporais que, mesmo na hipótese de severidade extrema, não constituem motivo de grave escândalo quando se sabe – e o próprio Globo o reconhece – que grande parte das crianças recolhidas àquelas instituições era constituída de delinqüentes. Se você comprime bandidos menores de idade num internato e a cada dezesseis anos um deles aparece surrado ou estuprado, a coisa é evidentemente deplorável, mas não há nela nada que se compare ao que aconteceu no Sudão, onde, no curso de um só ano, vinte crianças, não criminosas, mas inocentes, refugiadas de guerra, afirmaram ter sofrido abuso sexual nas mãos de funcionários da santíssima ONU, contra a qual o Globo jamais disse uma só palavra.

Só o ódio cego à Igreja Católica explica que o sentido geral dado a uma notícia seja o contrário daquilo que afirmam os próprios dados numéricos nela publicados.

Por isso, saiba o prezado leitor que só leio a “grande mídia” por obrigação profissional de analisá-la, como se analisam fezes num laboratório, e que jamais o faria se estivesse em busca de informação.

sexta-feira, 5 de junho de 2009

Irmãos e Irmãs

Os protestantes afirmam que Jesus não era filho único. Há diversas defesas a essa colocação. A mais interessante é a constatação de que a palavra "irmão", para os antigos judeus, poderia designar diversos níveis de parentesco ou de amizade, como na passagem abaixo.
Outra observação é que na Bíblia, por exemplo, não há um único registro da palavra "primo".

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Livro de Tobias 6,10-11.7,1.9-17.8,4-9.

Ora, tendo eles chegado à Média, quando se aproximavam de Ecbátana, Rafael disse ao jovem: «Tobias, irmão!» Este respondeu: «Eis-me aqui.» Ele, então, disse-lhe: «Esta noite devemos ficar em casa de Raguel. Este homem é teu parente e tem uma filha chamada Sara. Quando chegaram a Ecbátana, Tobias disse ao anjo: «Irmão Azarias, leva-me já a Raguel, nosso irmão.» O anjo conduziu-o à casa de Raguel. Encontraram-no sentado à porta do pátio e cumprimentaram-no. Raguel respondeu-lhes: «Eu vos saúdo, irmãos! De todo o coração, sede bem-vindos com saúde.» E introduziu-os em casa. Ora, tendo-se eles lavado e sentado para comer, Tobias disse a Rafael: «Irmão Azarias, pede a Raguel que me dê por esposa, Sara, minha irmã.» Raguel ouviu estas palavras, e respondeu a Tobias: «Come e bebe e passa a noite tranquilo, pois não há ninguém a quem toque tomar por esposa minha filha Sara, a não ser tu, irmão, pois nem mesmo eu tenho o direito de a entregar a outro homem senão a ti, porque és o meu parente mais próximo. Devo contudo, dizer-te a verdade, filho: Já a dei a sete maridos, escolhidos entre os nossos irmãos, e todos morreram na mesma noite em que dela se aproximaram. Contudo, meu filho, come e bebe agora, o Senhor providenciará em vosso favor.» Tobias, porém, replicou: «Não comerei nem beberei antes que resolvas a minha situação.» Respondeu Raguel: «Assim o farei. Ela te é dada segundo a lei de Moisés, e já que o Céu assim o determinou, então, que ela te seja dada. Toma-a desde este momento, segundo a Lei. Doravante serás seu irmão e ela tua irmã; é-te dada a partir de hoje, por toda a eternidade. E o Senhor do céu vos faça felizes, esta noite, meu filho, e derrame sobre vós misericórdia e paz!» A seguir, Raguel chamou Sara, sua filha. Quando ela se aproximou, tomou-lhe a mão e entregou-a a Tobias, dizendo: «Leva-a conforme a Lei de Moisés, a qual manda que te seja dada por esposa. Toma-a, pois, e leva-a alegremente, para a casa de teu pai. Que o Deus do céu vos guie em paz!» Chamou depois a mãe, mandou trazer uma tabuinha e escreveu o contrato matrimonial, declarando que dava Sara por esposa a Tobias, conforme a sentença da Lei de Moisés, e selou-o. Foi então que começaram a comer e a beber. Mais tarde, Raguel chamou Edna, sua esposa, e disse-lhe: «Irmã, prepara outro quarto, e leva para lá Sara.» Edna entrou no outro aposento e preparou-o, como o marido lhe dissera, e levou sua filha para o aposento nupcial e chorava por ela. Mas, enxugando as lágrimas, dizia-lhe: «Coragem, filha! O Senhor do céu te dê alegria em lugar da tua tristeza! Coragem, filha!» E saiu. Entretanto, os pais de Sara tinham saído e fechado a porta do quarto. Tobias, então, ergueu-se do leito e disse à esposa: «Irmã, levanta-te; vamos orar para que o Senhor nos conceda a sua misericórdia e salvação.» Levantaram-se ambos e puseram-se a orar e a implorar que lhes fosse enviada a salvação, dizendo: «Bendito sejas, Deus dos nossos pais, e bendito seja o teu nome, por todas as gerações; louvem-te os céus e todas as tuas criaturas, por todos os séculos. Tu criaste Adão e deste-lhe Eva, sua esposa, como amparo valioso, e de ambos procedeu a linhagem dos homens. Com efeito, disseste: Não é bom que o homem esteja só; façamos-lhe uma auxiliar semelhante a ele. Agora, Senhor, Tu bem sabes que não é com paixão depravada que agora tomo por esposa a minha irmã, mas é com intenção pura. Permite, pois, que eu e ela encontremos misericórdia, e cheguemos juntos à velhice.» E ambos responderam ao mesmo tempo: «Ámen, Ámen!» Depois, deitaram-se para passar a noite.